Comparison of Test Sizing Approaches for Initial and Follow-On Evaluation of Strategic Weapon Systems

ABSTRACT

Testing programs exist to establish initial estimates of reliability for strategic weapon systems and to determine significant changes in reliability. The methods to determine the appropriate sample sizes are based on one- and two-sample estimates of proportions. There are guidelines that exist that provide specific methods to determine sample sizes for strategic weapons systems. The methods used are considered to be quite conservative, and this article investigates alternative approaches for both initial and follow-on test sizing for weapon system reliability estimates. The methods are compared through Monte Carlo simulation.

KEYWORDS:

• binomial distribution
• confidence intervals
• coverage probability
• proportion
• sample size

SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIAL

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