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ABSTRACT
The improvement of schools takes place over extended periods of time. Consequently longitudinal studies which track successive cohorts of pupils through their schooling are required if estimates of the extent of improvement are to be established. To date, hardly any studies have collected the necessary data. Those studies which have had appropriate data have tended to emphasise the extent of stability of schools' effectiveness over time rather than the extent of any changes. A shift in conceptual framework is called for if improvements in schools' effectiveness are to be the central focus of concern.
The study is based on three successive cohorts of pupils passing through some 30 English secondary schools. It uses examination results as the outcome measure and includes a prior attainment measure amongst the variables used to control for differences between schools' intakes. A multi‐level strategy for conceptualising and modelling data on schools' changes in performance over time is offered.
In common with earlier studies the research shows that there is a good deal of stability in schools' effectiveness from year‐to‐year; only a small proportion of the schools in the study (between a fifth and a quarter) were improving or deteriorating in terms of their effectiveness. A particularly striking finding of the research was that whilst several schools improved in effectiveness only one initially ‘ineffective’ school did so consistently. The implications of the study for future research on school improvement are discussed.