Dear CHANCE Colleagues,
The public is fascinated with forensic science. Many of the most popular television shows, such as “CSI,” “Forensic Files,” “NCIS,” and “The First 48,” involve forensic science themes. In these shows, techniques such as fingerprinting, DNA analyses, facial recognition, firearms forensics, and computer forensics are used to identify perpetrators of crimes.
However, news stories of wrongly convicted and imprisoned people have brought to light the need to strengthen the scientific foundation for many aspects of forensic science. Initiatives are underway to accomplish this goal, with statisticians playing a key role.
In the first article, Steve Pierson and Karen Kafadar lay the groundwork for the series of articles comprising this special issue of CHANCE on forensic statistics. They outline recent federal efforts in forensic science and discuss the engagement of statisticians in those efforts.
Cedric Neumann and Hal Stern discuss fingerprinting and the challenges in fingerprint examinations. Although the use of fingerprinting is widespread, increasing research is being conducted to enhance and improve the process, using standardization and more sophisticated statistical tools.
James Curran and Bruce Weir discuss classic and continuous methods of DNA interpretation. Future statistical challenges will include continued refining of continuous interpretation methods, as well as those presented by next-generation sequencing.
Edward Cheng discusses a tragic case in New York involving the death of “Baby Annie.” He concludes that we must ask ourselves whether our methods and resulting conclusions are sound enough to convict or acquit, since justice hangs in the balance.
Sandy Zabell discusses several examples illustrating the importance of blinding to minimize bias. Since forensic science has subjective elements, involves people with competing interests, and includes psychological factors, blinding is particularly important.
Presenting forensic science evidence in the courtroom is the subject of an article by Cedric Neumann, David Kaye, Graham Jackson, Valerie Reyna, and Anjali Ranadive.
Mark Lancaster then discusses statistical issues associated with document examination in forensic science.
In our columns, Sonja Starr urges us to learn from data but not to forget our core values while discussing actuarial risk prediction and the criminal justice system in “The Odds of Justice.” Robert Nathenson takes a historical look at parity in baseball and how free agency and playoff expansion is changing our national pastime in “A Statistician Reads the Sports Pages.” Howard Wainer discusses defeating deception by learning to think like a data scientist and encourages a balance of skepticism with open-mindedness in “Visual Revelations.”