How Can We Estimate Modern Slavery Globally?

Abstract

The estimation of prevalence has been an important part of the process of bringing the crime of modern slavery and human trafficking to wide public and policy attention. The only large-scale estimate of modern slavery, presented with considerable background detail, is provided by the Global Estimates of Modern Slavery (GEMS), produced by two United Nations agencies together with Walk Free, an international charitable human rights group. Measuring the scale of modern slavery is a tough and complicated task. Modern slavery abuses are often hidden, or they may occur in countries where collecting data is difficult due to political instability. Given the challenges in estimating the prevalence of modern slavery, this article discussed some aspects of the estimation process, and reflect on issues it raises more generally for statistical analysis in difficult and important areas.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Rowland G. Seymour

Rowland Seymour is an assistant professor in statistics at the University of Birmingham. His work focuses on developing effective computational methods for statistical models, especially ones involving Bayesian nonparametric elements. In particular, he has developed methods for applications in human rights and epidemiology.

Bernard W. Silverman

Sir Bernard Silverman is Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Oxford and former chief scientific adviser to the UK Home Office. He has had wide-ranging research interests for nearly 50 years, building on a focus on computational statistics and recently concentrating on statistical and broader issues relating to modern slavery and other hidden crimes.