The Belt & Road Initiative and China’s influence in Southeast Asia

Abstract

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), since its inception in late 2013, has drawn tremendous global attention. The views of political leaders, business people, the media, and analysts on the prospect of the BRI are ostensibly polarized. One group asserts that the BRI will dramatically increase Beijing’s global influence, particularly in China’s neighborhood. Another group surmises that the BRI is expected to fail because of insurmountable challenges and is expected to fail. This article joins the debate by exploring the impact of the BRI on Southeast Asia’s regional order. The author holds a middle-ground position and argues that the actual impact of the BRI should neither be easily dismissed nor overestimated. More likely, through the BRI, China’s influence in Southeast Asia will increase but not to the extent of forging a Sinocentric order in the region. This can be explained by three major factors: (a) the responses of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its member states toward the BRI, (b) the effects of alternative infrastructure initiatives proposed by other major powers in Southeast Asia, and (c) China’s questionable ability to deliver its BRI promises.

Keywords:

• Belt and Road Initiative
• Southeast Asia
• China–ASEAN relations

Notes

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1 The proposed project of Sino-Myanmar from Kunming to Kyaukpyu within Myanmar territory was suspended but the constructions within Chinese boundary (Kunming-Ruili, Dali-Lincang-Qingshuihe) were listed as achievements of BRI. see https://www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/qyfc/xmal/2465.htm

2 In this table, the tertiary industry includes wholesale and retail, logistics, leasing and commercial services, financial intermediation, and real estate.

3 Viewpoint gathered from interviews with scholars, experts, diplomats from ten Southeast Asian countries from February 2017 to May 2017.

4 Data from interviews conducted during the author’s field trips from February 2017 to May 2017.

5 Interview at the Centre for Myanmar Affairs Studies of the Ministry of Information, 21 May 2018

6 Interviews in Mandalay, Yangon between 12-22 May, 2018.

7 Interviews with an Indonesian official on 7 February, 2017.

8 Interviews with officials from Vietnam and Thailand, May 2017.

9 Interviews in Mandalay 17 May 2018.

10 Interviews in Mandalay 17 May 2018.

11 Imports statistics cover iron and steel; aluminum articles; nuclear reactors, boilers; machinery and mechanical appliances; electrical machinery and equipment, vehicles and others. See https://data.aseanstats.org/trade_hs2.php