Unbalanced deterrence: coercive threat, reassurance and the US-China rivalry in Taiwan strait

Abstract

After Tsai Ing-wen was elected, both Mainland China and the United States realized that the situation in the Taiwan Strait has undergone fundamental changes. In order to curb Taiwan’s independence policy, the Mainland China has strengthened its coercive threats against Taiwan while the US chose to increase its strategic commitment to Taiwan and revisit the One-China policy. This article argues the current framework between China and US on Taiwan issue is collapsing. The rising of Mainland China is the root cause for this round tension, however, Tsai Ing-wen refused to accept the 92 consensus which was the trigger. This article elaborates the argument that the delicate balance in the Taiwan Strait is declining, which both China and the United Stated have increased their deterrent threats to each other while decreased their reassurances, and regional crisis is emerging. For the leaders of China and the United States, it is urgent to manage the emerging Taiwan Strait crisis and prevent the situation from going out of control.

Keywords:

• US-China rivalry
• Taiwan issue
• coercive threat
• reassurance

Acknowledgements

The author would like to extend his sincere appreciation to Emily Ortwein for her assistance, and to Liu Feng and the anonymous for their helpful comments on the earlier drafts.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 Rivalry can be defined as 'a form of conflict in which relatively few opponents must make decisions in full knowledge that rivals will perceive those decisions as interfering to a greater or lesser extent with their welfares. (Kuenne, 1989)' In the conflict, one country's actions will influence another’s interests and 'those rivals will react self-protectively'.

2 Mainland China' GDP data can be found from World Bank website, retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD; About Taiwan’s GDP data, please see National National Development Council (ROC). (2018). Taiwan Statistical Date Book 2018. Retrieved from https://www.ndc.gov.tw/en/News_Content.aspx?n=607ED34345641980&sms=B8A915763E3684AC&s=B3B7911F9063C75F.

3 'SIPRI military expenditure database', retrieved from https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, and the Research Funds of Renmin University of China (Grant No. 16XNB007).

Notes on contributors

Zuo Xiying

Zuo Xiying is an Associate Professor at School of International Studies, Renmin University of China, where he provides research and analysis on international security, Sino-U.S. relations, and the regional security of Asia-Pacific.