Can China realise its energy-savings goal by adjusting its industrial structure?

ABSTRACT

To investigate whether China can realise its energy-savings goal by 2020 through adjustments to its industrial structure, this study proposes a dynamic input–output multi-objective optimisation model. According to this model, the objectives to be achieved include the maximum gross domestic product and employment, and the minimum energy consumption, where the constraints are the sectoral dynamic input–output balance, labour and energy supply, and sectoral production capacity. The four best solutions are screened from the Pareto-optimal front. The study findings show that the energy intensities in 2020 would decrease by 42.8%, 43.5%, 42.9%, and 43.4% in the four scenarios when compared to their 2002 levels. This means that China can fully achieve its planned energy-savings target for 2020. In order to ensure that the industrial structure is optimised for the future, sectoral capital investments should be regulated by China's government and efforts to improve energy efficiency should be maintained.

KEYWORDS:

• Dynamic input–output model
• Industrial structure adjustment
• Energy-saving
• Multi-objective optimisation
• Scenarios

Supplemental Data

Supplemental material for this article is available via the supplemental tab on the article's online page at http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2015.1102714.

Notes

¹Because there is only the gross energy consumption of the three sectors S15–S17 and separate data from these three sectors cannot be obtained, this study has merged these three sectors into one sector to compute their energy intensity.

Additional information

Funding

The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71103016 and 71573236), the New Century Excellent Talents in University (NCET-12-0952), and the Humanities and Social Sciences Fund, Ministry of Education of China (15YJA630092).