Counterbalancing using unequal weights

Abstract

Abstract. Counterbalancing is a new method of forecasting that reduces the systematic component of forecasting error. A graphical interpretation of the method is presented. This intuitive approach reveals the need for variable as opposed to fixed equal weights. The method is expanded to counterbalancing with variable weights, resulting in further reductions in forecasting error. Important applications include (1) power system hourly load forecasting for economic dispatch, (2) information feed forward in continuous process control, and (3) forecasting for scheduling, just in time manufacturing, sales, and distribution requirements planning in global logistics.

Keywords:

• counterbalancing
• antithetic
• power
• transformation
• regression
• serial
• correlation

Additional information

Notes on contributors

DENIS RIDLEY

DENIS RIDLEY was born in Jamaica. He studied electrical engineering in England and Trinidad where he received the M.Sc. in power systems analysis from the University of the West Indies. He was awarded a Ph.D. in engineering management at Clemson University, USA. Previous appointments include Howard, George Mason and Clemson Universities, Jamaica Public Service Co and the International Atomic Energy Agency. He also serves as a consultant on forecasting. His professional societies include the Institute of Management Science, the International Institute of Forecasters, and Production and Operations Management Society.