Sustainability, foresight and contested futures: exploring visions and pathways in the transition to a hydrogen economy

Abstract

This paper reports an innovative foresighting study which constructed a set of hydrogen futures and pathways to them, in order to inform the transition to a sustainable hydrogen economy. Combining backcasting and multi-criteria appraisal the authors developed a participatory expert stakeholder-led methodology to build and appraise a set of visions, which sought to acknowledge the diversity of possible hydrogen futures and contested claims as to their sustainability. A set of transition scenarios were then developed exploring the dynamics and governance of the large-scale socio-technical changes that would be required for the emergence of the different visions. While aspects of this project have been reported elsewhere, this paper seeks to: (1) locate the work with respect to broader developments in the fields of foresight, expectations and socio-technical transitions to sustainability; (2) provide a description of the UKSHEC sustainable futures methodology; and (3) reflect on key insights for research and practice.

Keywords:

• scenario planning
• technology and innovation studies
• energy industry
• foresight

Acknowledgements

Funding for this work was provided by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC).

Notes

That is, Nuclear Industry Expert; Carbon Trust Analyst; Department for Trade and Industry (DTI) Policy Maker; Fuel Cell Industry Participant; Sustainable Energy Policy Consultant; Industrial Gases Industry Participant; Energy Technology Researcher; Environmental Campaigner; Health & Safety Regulator; Energy Policy Researcher; Senior Oil Industry Participant; Department for Transport (DfT) Policy Maker; Automotive Industry Participant; Regional Government Policy Maker; and Climate Scientist.

In order to make the scenarios more accessible to a UK policy audience unfamiliar with the concept of the socio-technical regime the multi-level structure is described in terms of the niche, system and landscape instead of the niche, regime and landscape.

Centralised hydrogen for transport. This vision is an amalgamation of the original Central pipeline and Liquid hydrogen visions. Hydrogen has become the dominant transport fuel and is produced centrally from a mixture of sources. Hydrogen is distributed as a gas by dedicated pipeline and as a liquid. In some applications, liquid hydrogen is the onboard storage mechanism, while in others, compressed gaseous hydrogen is used.