How a rapid modal convergence into a universal automated taxi service could be the future for local passenger transport

Abstract

The world is changing rapidly. Yet a common assumption is that cars, buses, and taxis will remain the dominant local passenger transport modes in the coming decades. This concept paper draws on literature sources and on discussions with industry stakeholders to look anew at the local passenger transport sector in the light of broader societal trends to suggest an alternative future, and to offer insights to practitioners and policy-makers. The paper finds that the traditional modes of car, bus and taxi are slowly beginning to lose market share to intermediate modes such as shared taxis, lift-sharing schemes, demand-responsive transport services and car clubs whilst numerous technological and market trends are combining to accelerate this process of ‘modal convergence’. Taken together, these trends could revolutionise how we move about, with one possible outcome being the emergence of a single dominant passenger mode of an automated universal taxi system or dial-a-pod.

Keywords:

• driverless vehicles
• autonomous transport system
• transport planning scenario
• transport policy futures
• technological-cycles innovation model

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes on contributor

Dr Marcus P. Enoch joined Loughborough University as a lecturer in Transport Studies in 2003 and became a senior lecturer in 2007. Previously, he worked at the Open University and at the journal Local Transport Today. Dr Marcus P. Enoch has a research interest in investigating the impact of context, governance and policy interventions on transport systems.

Notes

1. See http://www.atco.org.uk/component/eventlist/details/24-summer-conference-2012 for details of the event.

2. For conference outputs see Lytton and Poston (2012).

3. See http://www.carplus.org.uk/managing-and-reporting-data-in-the-ride-share-sector/ for details of the event.

4. See http://www.bvrla.co.uk/news/press-release/workshop-explores-greater-government-and-fleet-industry-co-operationhttp://www.bvrla.co.uk/news/press-release/workshop-explores-greater-government-and-fleet-industry-co-operation for a press release of the event.

5. It should be noted that subsequent UK experiences have been mixed, with CityCarClub making a profit for the first time in a decade of operations in 2013, but with Whipcar and car2go having exited the marketplace in 2013 and 2014, respectively (Carplus 2013; Car2go 2014).