Unveiling the breakthrough potential of established technologies: an empirical investigation in the aerospace industry

ABSTRACT

The present article sheds new light on the role of established technologies as a driving force behind technological evolution, hence unveiling their breakthrough potential. Specifically, going against the conventional wisdom that only nascent technologies significantly shape future technological developments, we examine the likelihood that established technologies have to become breakthrough solutions. Furthermore, we also analyse if and how the breadth of knowledge base characterising those inventions influences this probability. Based on a sample of 21,000 patents belonging to the aerospace industry granted at the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), our results reveal that established technologies have an inverted U-shaped effect on the likelihood of becoming breakthroughs, and that such relationship is negatively influenced by a wide knowledge breadth.

KEYWORDS:

• Established technologies
• breakthrough technologies
• knowledge breadth
• technological evolution
• aerospace

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes on contributors

Lorenzo Ardito holds a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering and Management from the Politecnico di Bari (Italy). He is currently a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Technology and Innovation Management at Politecnico di Bari. He has been a visiting Ph.D. candidate at WHU-Otto Beisheim School of Management, at the chair of Technology and Innovation Management. His main research interests concern the analysis of the dynamics underlying the development and commercialisation of new technologies. He has so far published in European Management Review and Applied Energy, as well as he has presented part of his work in leading international conferences, such as the 2015 Academy of Management Annual Meeting, the 35th DRUID Summer Conference, the 14th EURAM Conference, and XXVI ISPIM Conference.

Antonio Messeni Petruzzelli, Ph.D. in Innovation Management, is Assistant Professor at Politecnico di Bari (Italy). He was visiting scholar at IESE Business School – University of Navarra (Barcelona, Spain). His main research interests concern technology strategy and knowledge management. He is the author of several papers published in international journals including Journal of Management, Long Range Planning, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Journal of Organizational Behavior, European Management Review, Technovation, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, Knowledge Management Research & Practice, Journal of Knowledge Management, Scandinavian Journal of Management, and International Journal of Production Economics.

Dr Umberto Panniello received the Ph.D. degree in business engineering from the Politecnico di Bari (Italy). He has been a Visiting Scholar at the Wharton Business School of University of Pennsylvania, PA, USA. He is Assistant Professor in Management at the Politecnico di Bari, where he teaches e-business model and business intelligence at the School of Engineering. His current main research interest is on customer modelling, consumer behaviour, customer re-identification, context-aware and profit-based recommender systems. He has also done research on knowledge discovery in databases to support decision-making process.

Notes

1. See http://www.astronautix.com/engines/rs88.htm

2. See http://ansari.xprize.org/news/spaceshipone-wins-10-million-xprize

3. See http://science.howstuffworks.com/spaceshipone5.htm

4. The complete list of the US class ‘aeronautics and astronautics’ is available at http://www.uspto.gov/web/offices/ac/ido/oeip/taf/moc/244.htm

5. http://www.cruiseeverything.com/rocket_ship_tours/

6. https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/media/111460.pdf