Abstract
This paper reviews NHS England’s recent report on the formula that guides the allocation of tens of billions of pounds to clinical commissioning groups (CCGs). It finds deficiencies and errors in the unprincipled construction of the formula and substitutes Sir Francis Galton’s logical concept of ‘regression to the mean’ for the report’s ad hoc conjectures about striking patterns of certain coefficients.
Acknowledgement
I thank Rex Galbraith for the PBRA3 plot matching Fig. 7.3, Jane Galbraith for her challenging comments, and both of them for their patience with my uncertainty about how to respond to the NHSE report.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Mervyn Stone
Mervyn Stone is Emeritus Professor of Statistics at University College London, UK.