Strategic Targeting: The Islamic State and Use of Violence in Iraq and Syria

ABSTRACT

What explains the specific location of Islamic State attacks in Syria and Iraq? We consider how both ethnic and economic factors shape the group’s decision-making about where to attack. We explore these competing motivations using spatial analysis of the Islamic State’s individual acts of violence from 2013–2017. We find that both areas with ethnic heterogeneity and valuable economic rents are associated with more individual Islamic State violent events. By examing the micro-foundations of the Islamic State’s conflict decisions, we provide further nuance to understanding the strategic logic of rebel groups during wartime.

KEYWORDS:

• Civil war
• resource curse
• ethnic diversity

Acknowledgments

Our thanks to Luis Felipe Mantilla and the anonymous reviewers for their valuable feedback.

Notes

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Additional information

Notes on contributors

Michael Burch

Michael Burch is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Eckerd College. His primary research interest is non-state actors during wartime with an emphasis on Africa and the Middle East. Recent publications have explored when international actors intervene on behalf of rebel groups during civil war and under what circumstances rebel groups fragment during conflict.

Elise Pizzi

Elise Pizzi is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Iowa. Her research primarily focuses on rural development in China. Her work has explored natural resource management and public goods provision as well as ethnic politics and migration. Outside of China, Professor Pizzi’s research has explored the intersection of natural resources, ethnic politics, and conflict and the relationship between environmental migration and violent conflict.