A Theoretical, Empirical, and Methodologically Based Instrument to Assess the Risk of Violent Jihadist Radicalization in Prisons: The DRAVY-3

ABSTRACT

A main goal of the Spanish National Counter-Terrorism Strategy is to improve the detection and control of inmates who may participate or collaborate with terrorist groups after release convicted and detained inmates linked to terrorist acts, as well as of those individuals involved, during their stay in prison, in violent extremist recruitment or indoctrination. This manuscript introduces an instrument for assessing the risk of violent jihadist radicalization in prisons, the Detention of Violent Jihadists Radicalization (DRAVY-3 for its Spanish initials). This instrument was built on tools already existing, a review of the literature, the experience of the prison staff, indicators suggested by researchers from two institutions, a field study conducted with Muslim inmates (jihadists and non-jihadists), and the results of six implementations of two preliminary versions. The DRAVY-3 was tested by evaluating 570 inmates from five groups (related to jihadist terrorism and controls). The analyses showed that the indicators are distributed into three scales: violence in general, violence of jihadist aetiology, and radicalism. Analyses also informed that a combination of indicators confirm an index of prediction of the level of danger. Results demonstrate the internal strength of the instrument and its capacity to detect potential radicalization leading to violence.

KEYWORDS:

• Jihadist terrorism
• prison
• risk assessment
• violent radicalism
• DRAVY-3

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2022.2145194

Notes

1. European Parliament resolution of November 25, 2015 on the prevention of radicalization and recruitment of European citizens by terrorist organisations (2015/2063(INI).

2. M. King and D. M. Taylor, “The Radicalization of Homegrown Jihadists: A Review of Theoretical Models and Social Psychological Evidence,” Terrorism and Political Violence 4, no. 23 (2011): 602–22.

3. C. R. Jones, “Are Prisons Really Schools for Terrorism? Challenging the Rhetoric on Prison Radicalization.” Punishment & Society 16, no.1 (2014):74–103.

4. B. Useem and O. Clayton, “Radicalization of U.S. Prisoners,” Criminology & Public Policy 8, no. 3 (2009): 561–92, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1745-9133.2009.00574.x.

5. J. Rushchenko, “Terrorist Recruitment and Prison Radicalization: Assessing the UK Experiment of Separation Centres,” European Journal of Criminology, Special Issue: Understanding European Jihadist: Criminal, Extremist or Both (2019): 1–20; A. Silke and T. Veldhuis, “Countering Violent Extremism in Prisons: A Review of Key Recent Research and Critical Research Gaps,” Perspectives on Terrorism 11, no. 5 (2017): 2–11, https://www.jstor.org/stable/26297927; H. M. Trujillo, J. Jordán, J. A. Gutiérrez, and J. González-Cabrera, “Radicalization in Prisons? Field Research in 25 Spanish Prisons,” Terrorism and Political Violence 21, no. 4 (2009): 558–79, https://doi.org/10.1080/09546550903153134.

6. RAN, “Risk Assessment in Prison,” 2021, https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/networks/radicalization-awareness-network-ran/publications/risk-assessment-prison-2021_en.

7. R. Warnes and G. Hannah, “Meeting the Challenge of Extremist and Radicalized Prisoners: The Experiences of the United Kingdom and Spain,” Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice 2, no. 4 (2008): 402–11.

8. R. Basra and P. R. Neumann, Prisons and Terrorism: Extremist Offender Management in 10 European Countries (International Centre for the Study of Radicalization (ICSR), 2020), https://icsr.info/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ICSR-Report-Prisons-and-Terrorism-Extremist-Offender-Management-in-10-European-Countries_V2.pdf; RAN, “Preventing Radicalization to Terrorism and Violent Extremism,” 2015, http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-wedo/networks/radicalization_awareness_network/ran-best-practices/docs/ran_collection-approaches_and_practices_en.pdf; J. Santos-Hermoso, J. L. González-Álvarez, A. Macía-Vázquez, F. Pozuelo-Rubio, and S. Chiclana, “Jihadist Extremism in Spanish Prisons: Characterisation of the Inmates Linked to Jihadist Radicalization and Analysis of Their Behaviour in Prison,” Terrorism and Political Violence (2021), DOI: 10.1080/09546553.2021.1972978.

9. J. Monahan, “The Individual Risk Assessment of Terrorism,” Psychology, Public Policy, and Law 18, no. 2 (2012): 167–205, https://doi.org/10.1037/a0025792; M. Moyano, Radicalización Terrorista (Síntesis, 2019); A. Scarcella, R. Page, and V. Furtado, “Terrorism, Radicalization, Extremism, Authoritarianism and Fundamentalism: A Systematic Review of the Quality and Psychometric Properties of Assessments,” PLoS One 11, no. 12 (2016): 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0166947; L. Van der Heide, M. Van der Zwan, and M. Van Leyenhorst, The Practitioner’s Guide to the Galaxy: A Comparison of Risk Assessment Tools for Violent Extremism (International Centre for Counter-Terrorism, 2019), https://icct.nl/publication/the-practitioners-guide-to-the-galaxy-a-comparison-of-risk-assessment-tools-for-violent-extremism/.

10. I. Marrero and S. Berdún, “Jihadist Prisoners in Spain and the Application of the High Security Prison Regime,” European Journal of Criminology (2021), https://doi.org/10.1177/14773708211018946; OSCE, Protecting Human Rights in Prisons while Preventing Radicalization Leading to Terrorism or Violence: A Guide for Detention Monitors (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, 2021), https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/b/3/492934_0.pdf.

11. B. Doosje, F. M. Moghaddam, A. W. Kruglanski, A. De Wolf, L. Mann, and A. R. Feddes, “Terrorism, Radicalization and De-Radicalization,” Current Opinion in Psychology 11 (2016): 79–84.

12. D. A. Pluchinsky, “Global Jihadist Recidivism: A Red Flag,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 31, no. 3 (2008): 182–200, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10576100701878457.

13. C. McCauley and S. Moskalenko, “Understanding Political Radicalization: The Two-Pyramids Model,” American Psychologist 72, no. 3 (2017): 205–16, https://doi.org/10.1037/amp0000062.

14. I. Loinaz, Manual de evaluación del riesgo de violencia. Metodología y ámbitos de aplicación (Pirámide, 2017).

15. J. L. González-Álvarez, J. J. López-Ossorio, C. Urruela, and M. Rodríguez-Díaz, “Integral Monitoring System in Cases of Gender Violence—VioGén System,” Behavior & Law Journal 4, no. 1 (2018): 29–40, https://doi.org/10.47442/blj.v4.i1.56; J. J. López-Ossorio, J. L. González-Álvarez, I. Loinaz, A. Martinez-Martínez, and D. Pineda, “Intimate Partner Homicide Risk Assessment by Police in Spain: The Dual Protocol VPR5.0-H,” Psychosocial Intervention 30, no. 1 (2020): 47–55, https://doi.org/10.5093/pi2020a16.

16. R. Augestad-Knudsen, “Measuring Radicalization: Risk Assessment Conceptualisations and Practice in England and Wales,” Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression 12, no. 1 (2020): 37–54.

17. A. Scarcella, R. Page, and V. Furtado, “Terrorism, Radicalisation, Extremism, Authoritarianism and Fundamentalism: A Systematic Review of the Quality and Psychometric Properties of Assessments.” PloS one, 11, no.12 (2016):e0166947.

18. Ibid.; Van der Heide et al., “The Practitioner’s Guide to the Galaxy.”

19. S. Cornwall and M. Molenkamp, “Developing, Implementing and using Risk Assessment for Violent Extremist and Terrorist Offenders,” RAN Ex Post Paper (2018): 1–12.

20. B. Schuurman, “Topics in Terrorism Research: Reviewing Trends and Gaps, 2007–2016,” Critical Studies on Terrorism 12, no. 3 (2019): 463–80, https://doi.org/10.1080/17539153.2019.1579777.

21. Scarcella et al., “Terrorism, Radicalization, Extremism, Authoritarianism and Fundamentalism.”

22. K. Höffler, M. Meyer, and V. Möller, “Risk Assessment—the Key to More Security? Factors, Tools, and Practices in Dealing with Extremist Individuals,” European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research (2022), https://doi.org/10.1007/s10610-021-09502-6.

23. E. Pressman, N. Duits, T. Rinne, and J. Flockton, VERA-2R Violent Extremism Risk Assessment Version 2 Revised: A Structured Professional Judgment Approach (NIFP/DJI, 2016).

24. C. Fernández, “Valoración del Riesgo del Radicalismo Violento en el Medio Penitenciario,” in Radicalización violenta en España. Detección, gestión y respuesta, ed. R. Bermejo and I. Bazaga (Tirant Lo Blanch, 2019), 253–59.

25. Santos-Hermoso et al., “Jihadist Extremism in Spanish Prisons.”

26. J. Carreras and C. Fernández, “La ORDEN DE SERVICIOS 3/2018: ¿UN INSTRUMENTO PARA MEDIR EL RIESGO DE RADICALISMO VIOLENTO EN PRISIóN?” Estudios Penales y Criminológicos XLI (2021), https://doi.org/10.15304/epc.41.6718.

27. J. L. González-Álvarez, J. Santos-Hermoso, J. L. López-Novo, S. Chiclana, F. Pozuelo-Rubio, C. Fernández-Gómez, and C. Lanza-Comenaux, Construcción y validación de la herramienta de clasificación y de valoración del riesgo de radicalismo violento en el ámbito penitenciario (Secretaría General de Instituciones Penitenciarias, 2021).

28. L. Vidino and B. Clifford, A Review of Transatlantic Best Practices for Countering Radicalization in Prisons and Terrorist Recidivism (Europol, 2019), https://www.europol.europa.eu/publications-documents/review-of-transatlantic-best-practices-for-countering-radicalization-in-prisons-and-terrorist-recidivism.

29. S. Buquerín, Revisión de la metodología empleada para la construcción y validación de la herramienta de clasificación y valoración de riesgo de radicalismo violento en el ámbito penitenciario y aplicación de nuevas estrategias de análisis (Master’s dissertation). (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid 2022).

30. Á. Gómez, J. J. Bélanger, J. Chinchilla, A. Vázquez, B. M. Schumpe, C. F. Nisa, and S. Chiclana, “Admiration for Islamist Groups Encourages Self-Sacrifice through Identity Fusion,” Humanities and Social Sciences Communications 8, no. 1 (2021): 1–12; A. Gómez, S. Atran, J. Chinchilla, A. Vázquez, L. López-Rodríguez, B. Paredes, … and R. Davis, “Willingness to Sacrifice Among Convicted Islamist Terrorists versus Violent Gang Members and Other Criminals,” Scientific Reports 12, no. 1 (2022): 1–15.

31. Gómez et al., “Admiration for Islamist Groups Encourages Self-Sacrifice through Identity Fusion”; W. B. Swann, J. Jetten, A. Gómez, H. Whitehouse, and B. Bastian, “When Group Membership Gets Personal: A Theory of Identity Fusion,” Psychological Review 119, no. 3 (2012): 441–56, https://doi.org/10.1037/a0028589.

32. Gómez et al., “Willingness to Sacrifice Among Convicted Islamist Terrorists Versus Violent Gang Members and Other Criminals.”

33. M. Wolfowicz, Y. Litmanovitz, D. Weisburd, and B. Hasisi, “Cognitive and Behavioral Radicalization: A Systematic Review of the Putative Risk and Protective Factors,” Campbell Systematic Reviews 17, no. 3 (2021): e1174.

34. D. B. Rubin, Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys (Wiley, 1987).

35. J. W. Graham, A. E. Olchowski, and T. D. Gilreath, “How Many Imputations are Really Needed? Some Practical Clarifications of Multiple Imputation Theory,” Prevention Science 8 (2007): 206−13.

36. See note 33 above.

37. See note 23 above; see note 27 above.

38. See note 29 above.

39. See note 34 above.

40. See note 29 above.

41. See note 31 above.

42. J. Monahan, The Handbook of the Criminology of Terrorism (Wiley, 2015).

43. See note 26 above.

44. Ibid; See note 28 above.

45. K. S. Douglas and R. K. Otto (Eds.), Handbook of Violence Risk Assessment, 2nd ed. (Routledge, 2021).

46. See note 21 above.

47. O. Hodwitz, “The Terrorism Recidivism Study (TRS): An Update on Data Collection and Results,” Perspective on Terrorism 15, no. 4 (2021): 27–38; T. Renard, “Overblown: Exploring the Gap Between the Fear of Terrorist Recidivism and the Evidence,” CTC Sentinel, April 19–29, 2020.

Additional information

Funding

ERC Advanced Grant, Agreement n° 101018172, A Multi-Theory Approach for Preventing and Reducing Radicalization leading to violence-MULTIPREV, and Grant reference PID2021-124617OB-I00, from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, both to Ángel Gómez.

Notes on contributors

José Luis González-Álvarez

José Luis González-Álvarez, PhD in Psychology, Head of the Coordination and Studies Office of the Spanish Ministry of the Interior. His research focuses on the application of behavioral sciences to criminal investigation. His main area of interest is the strategic analysis of violent crimes.

Jorge Santos-Hermoso

Jorge Santos-Hermoso, PhD in Psychology. Professor at Universidad a Distancia de Madrid (UDIMA). Researcher at the Institute for Forensic and Security Sciences (ICFS; Autonomous University of Madrid). Specialized in criminal—particularly, violent—behavior. His academic interests include homicide, intimate partner violence, sexual aggression and terrorism.

Ángel Gómez

Ángel Gómez is Full Professor of Social Psychology, ERC Granted for his International project on preventing violent radicalization, de-radicalization and disengagement, and co-originator of identity fusion theory and the effects of personal and collective spiritual formidability on costly sacrifices for a group or an ideology.

José Luis López-Novo

Jose Luis López-Novo, Head of Services in the General Secretary of Penitentiary Institutions. Among other tasks related to security in the penitentiary field, he is responsible for the monitoring and control of radicalization processes in prisons.

Sara Buquerín-Pascual

Sara Buquerín-Pascual, BS in Psychology, is a Civil Guard in the Area of Gender Violence, Studies and Training of the Secretary of State for Security (Ministry of the Interior, Spain). His academic interests include Intelligence Analysis and Methodology in Behavioural and Health Sciences.

Florencia Pozuelo-Rubio

Florencia Pozuelo-Rubio, Head of area in the General Secretary of Penitentiary Institutions, Ministry of the Interior (Madrid, Spain). She is responsible for the design, evaluation, and monitoring of the specific treatment programs carried out in all Spanish prisons.

Carlos Fernández-Gómez

Carlos Fernández-Gómez, Open-Regime Prison Governor from the General Secretary of Penitentiary Institutions, Ministry of the Interior. Member of RAN Pool of Experts, member of the Advisory Committee of the Canadian Practitioners Network for the prevention of radicalization and extremist violence and trainer of the Council of Europe for the HELP Project.

Sandra Chiclana

Sandra Chiclana, PhD in Psychology, is Head of Services in the General Secretary of Penitentiary Institutions, Ministry of the Interior (Madrid, Spain). Researcher at the Institute for Forensic and Security Sciences (ICFS; Autonomous University of Madrid). Her research currently focuses on interpersonal violence, radicalization, hate crimes and female inmates.