Disaster: Agent of diplomacy or change in international affairs?

Abstract

Disaster is presented as a process of transition which changes relations both within and among states engaged in mitigation and response. The article advances the concept of complex adaptive systems (CAS) as an analytical tool that captures the high degrees of complexity and dynamics characteristic of potential or actual disasters. Consequently, the three case studies in this special section of the Cambridge Review of International Affairs which analyse critically the argument for disaster diplomacy as an opportunity to increase cooperation among rival states are re‐examined in a CAS framework. Based on the application of CAS to the case studies, the article concludes that creative diplomacy for disaster reduction is most effective at the ‘edge of chaos’, that narrow region where there is sufficient structure to hold and exchange information, but also sufficient flexibility to adapt new alternatives to meet urgent needs.