Is electoral violence effective? Evidence from Sri Lanka's 2005 presidential election

Abstract

This research note reports empirical findings from a study of the effectiveness of electoral violence and intimidation in Sri Lanka's 2005 presidential election. Using the previous 1999 presidential election as a baseline for comparison, analysis conducted at the polling division level reveals that both United National Party (UNP) candidate Ranil Wickramasinghe and United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFP) candidate Mahinda Rajapakse experienced declines in the percentage of votes in polling divisions where opponent party activists committed acts of violence or intimidation. Fewer polling divisions reported violence or intimidation by UNP than UPFP activists, but the former appear to have been more effective in demobilizing voters.

Keywords:

• Sri Lanka presidential election
• electoral violence
• demobilization
• Ranil Wickramasinghe
• Mahinda Rajapakse