![Sample our Politics & International Relations journals, sign in here to start your FREE access for 14 days]({"type":"image" , "src" : "/sda/5947/TOC-Subject-Sample-2021-Politics-International-Relations.jpg"})
Abstract
Insurgencies in the Northeast of India have been a recurring phenomenon since India's independence in 1947. One of the most significant aspects of the multiple insurgencies has been the use of violence for political goals. By drawing upon three cases of insurgencies in Northeast India, the article offers a conceptual framework on escalation and de-escalation of violence in insurgencies. The article argues that the most critical variables which have a direct bearing on the levels of insurgent violence are: popular support, loss of legitimacy and the state's counter-response.
Notes
† Additional affiliation: United States Institute of Peace, Washington DC.
1. CitationCallwell, Small Wars, 1–63; CitationShy and Collier, ‘Revolutionary Warfare’; CitationLawrence, Seven Pillars, 5–10.This insight has also been drawn from field interviews with Indian security personnel and insurgent leaders in Northeast India.
2. CitationBrown, The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict, 2.
3. CitationTarrow, ‘Inside Insurgencies’.
4. CitationGurr, Why Men Rebel, 7–14; CitationSkocpol, Social Revolutions, 13–28; CitationWeinstein, Inside Rebellion, 1–24.
5. CitationCrenshaw, ‘How Terrorism Declines’; CitationBennet, ‘A “Very Salutary Effect”’.
6. CitationCharters, The Deadly Sin of Terrorism, 23–30; CitationDuyvesteyn, ‘Great Expectations’.
7. CitationZartman, ‘The Timing of Peace Initiatives’.
8. CitationRamsbotham et al., Contemporary Conflict Resolution, 29.
9. CitationRamsbotham et al., Contemporary Conflict Resolution, 29
10. CitationRamsbotham et al., Contemporary Conflict Resolution, 29, 9.
11. CitationNuh and Lasuh, The Naga Chronicle, 114.
12. CitationGoswami, ‘Bangladeshi Illegal Migration into Assam’.
13. CitationBaruah, India Against Itself, 1–13.
14. CitationHussein, ‘Exclusive Interview, Pradip Gogoi’.
15. ‘People's Liberation Army’ at http://cdpsindia.org/manipur_mgp.asp (accessed on 15 October 2011).
16. Interview with military intelligence officer, Imphal, Manipur, August 2008. Name not revealed due to protection of source.
17. Gray, Modern Strategy, 283–5.
18. CitationGriffith, On Guerrilla Warfare, 5–6.
19. CitationGriffith, On Guerrilla Warfare, 5–6, 27–43.
20. CitationSchmidt and Schroder, Anthropology of Violence and Conflict, 4.
21. Field observation of NSCN (IM) and other insurgent groups’ leaders in Assam and Nagaland, 2007–2011.
22. CitationGoswami, ‘The Naga Narrative of Conflict’, 287–313.
23. The Sixth Naga Peoples’ Consultative Meeting was held on 27 July 2007 at Camp Hebron near Dimapur, Nagaland, which I attended as an observer. The meeting comprised nearly 5000 Naga peoples’ representatives from Naga areas in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, and Nagaland. Civil society organizations like the Naga Hoho (Apex Council) representatives, presidents of Tribal Hohos, Naga Mothers’ Association, Naga Students’ Federation, Human Rights Organizations, Village Headmen Association, Senior Citizens’ Forums, members of the intelligentsia and media were also in attendance.
24. Field visit to Assam, 10–20 February 2009.
25. ‘Peace talk would be self defeating: RPF’, The Sangai Express, 25 September 2011. http://thesangaiexpress.manipur.us/2011/09/25/sangai-express-news.php%3Fnewsid = 9187.html (accessed on 18 November 2011).
26. ‘Reflections’, The Sangai Express, 25 September 2011. http://thesangaiexpress.manipur.us/2011/09/26/sangai-express-news.php%3Fnewsid = 9208.html (accessed on 18 November 2011).
27. Field interview by author with Manipur University Professor, March 2011. Name not revealed for protection of source.
28. Collier and Hoeffler, ‘Greed and Grievance in Civil War’, 5.
29. Visit to Camp Heron, NSCN (IM) Headquarters near Dimapur, Nagaland, 27 July 2007.
30. See ‘Small Arms Survey’ at http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/files/portal/issueareas/inventories/inventories.html (accessed on 12 November 2009). Also see ‘India “must lead on ATT”’, at http://www.controlarms.org/en/events/global-week-of-action-1/india (accessed on 12 November 2009).
31. ‘People's Liberation Army (PLA)’ at http://www.start.umd.edu/start/data_collections/tops/terrorist_organization_profile.asp?id = 4590 (accessed on 17 November 2011).
32. CitationGoswami, ‘India's Counter-Insurgency Experience’, 75.
33. Weinstein, Inside Rebellion, 163–97.
34. Interviews with NSCN (IM) leaders, July 2007 and August 2008, Nagaland and Manipur.
35. Interviews with victims of insurgent violence, Haflong, Assam, July 2007.
36. Interview with local policymaker, Manipur, March 2011.
37. Interview with Naga Hoho, Dimapur, Nagaland, 2007, and Manipur, 2011.
38. See the documentary, The Naga Nation, 2005.
39. CitationKalyvas, The Logic of Violence in Civil Wars, 3–7.
40. Goswami, ‘India's Counter-Insurgency Experience’.
41. Schmidt and Schroeder, Anthropology of Violence and Conflict, 9–13.
42. CitationMack, ‘Why Big Nations Lose Small Wars’; CitationKiras, ‘Terrorism and Irregular Warfare’; CitationBajpai, Roots of Terrorism, 1–15.
43. CitationTalukdar, ‘Rebel Rule’.
44. ‘Isak Sounds Herald for Reforms within NSCN (IM)’, 29 September 2007 at http://www.nscnonline.org/modules.php?name = News&file = print&sid = 518 (accessed on 26 February 2008).
45. CitationPrabhakara, ‘The Long-drawn Naga Dialogue’.
46. CitationEaton, ‘Comparative History as World History’. Eaton indicated that Nagas represented the second massive conversion to Christianity, the first being Filipinos estimating that 90% of Nagas were Christians. Also see Free Nagaland Manifesto, GPRN, Oking, 31 January 1980.
47. Interviews with NSCN (IM) leaders, Camp Hebron, Nagaland, July 2007.
48. Field visit to Manipur, March 2011.
49. Based on field interaction in Imphal, Manipur, March 2011.
50. Bajpai, Roots of Terrorism, 98–104.
51. CitationConnable and Libicki, How Insurgencies End, 34–48.
52. CitationTucker, Among Insurgents, 82–5.
53. Egretau, Instability at the Gate, 78.
54. Field visit to Moreh and Tamu, India–Myanmar border, August 2008.
55. CitationShukla, ‘Absconding ULFA Chief Paresh Barua hiding in China’.
56. Mack, ‘Why Big Nations Lose Small Wars’.
57. CitationMao Tse Tung, Selected Military Writings, 210–19.
58. CitationShimray, Let Freedom Ring, 181–95.
59. Tucker, Among Insurgents, 82–5.
60. Interview with Phunthing Shimrang, Diphupar, Nagaland, July 2007.
61. Interview with security personnel, Manipur, March 2011. Name not revealed due to protection of source.
62. Interview with Temjenkaba, President, Ao Hoho, Dimapur, Nagaland, 27 July 2007.
63. Interview with Mr. Kakre, Naga Civil Society leader, New Delhi, 7 August 2006.
64. Interview with local policymaker, Guwahati, Assam, May 2010.
65. Interactions with academia, Sibsagar College, Assam, December 2010.
66. Mack, ‘Why Big Nations Lose Small Wars’, 128.
67. Interview with Naga Hoho and Naga Students’ Organization representatives, Dimapur, Nagaland, 27 July 2007.
68. Interviews with Assam Regiment, Shillong, Meghalaya, July 2007.
69. Field visit to Assam–Arunachal Pradesh border, March 2011.
70. Insights drawn from interview with the 5 Mountain Division, Imphal Manipur, 2008.
71. CitationTaber, War of the Flea, 14–26.
72. CitationBartos and Wehr, Using Conflict Theory, 17.
73. Shimray, Let Freedom Ring, 150–1; CitationHoram, Naga Insurgency, 23.
74. Speech by Thuingaleng. Muivah, General Secretary of the NSCN (IM), Camp Hebron, Dimapur, Nagaland, 27 July 2007.
75. Talukdar, ‘Rebel Rule’.
76. Visit to Camp Hebron by the author, 27 July 2007.
77. Field Visit to Assam, February 2009.
78. ‘Peace talks will be self defeating: RPF’, at http://www.e-pao.net/GP.asp?src = 5. .250911.sep11 (accessed on 16 November 2011)
79. CitationStedman, ‘Spoiler Problems in Peace Process’.
80. Joint Statement of Muivah and Swu, 7 July 1989, GPRN, p. 12.
81. Goswami, ‘The Naga Narrative of Conflict’, 298–9.
82. CitationGoswami, ‘The Indian Experience of Conflict Resolution in Mizoram’.
83. CitationWalzer, Just and Unjust Wars, i–viii.
84. Anand Kumar, ‘Assam: Kokopathar Killings Gives Strength to Dying ULFA’, at http://www.saag.org/%5Cpapers18%5Cpaper1733.html (accessed on 5 February 2007).
85. Anand Kumar, ‘Assam: Kokopathar Killings Gives Strength to Dying ULFA’, at http://www.saag.org/%5Cpapers18%5Cpaper1733.html (accessed on 5 February 2007)
86. CitationBaruah, Durable Disorder, 99–106.
87. CitationMahanta, ‘Accommodating the Third Voice in Conflict Zones’.
88. Field visit to Assam in July 2007 and interviews with local media, people, and villagers.
89. See ‘Wanyuh, others condemn factional clash’, Nagaland Post, 7 May 2008 at http://www.nagalandpost.com/Statedesc.asp?sectionid = 59518 (accessed on 7 May 2008).
90. Interview with Naga Hoho, Apex Naga tribal body, Diphupar, Nagaland, July 2007.
91. Insights from consultations with the army, police, and civil society in Manipur, March 2011.
92. CitationPruitt and Thomas, Democratic Dialogue, 20–1.
93. Goswami, ‘The Naga Narrative of Conflict’, 299.
94. CitationGoswami, ‘The Naga Intra-Community Dialogue’.
95. Mahanta, ‘Accommodating the Third Voice in Conflict Zones’.
96. Interviews, Naga Hoho, Dimapur, Nagaland, July 2007.
97. ‘ULFA Ready for Peace Talks: Rajkhowa’, The Times of India, 2 January 2011 at http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011–01–02/india/28372490_1_ulfa-chairman-arabinda-rajkhowa-ulfa-leader-guwahati-central (accessed on 8 January 2011).
98. CitationIrfan, ‘Manipur's People's Liberation Army reaches out to Maoist, J & K militants’.
99. ‘GBs-DBs declare CF among factions’, Nagaland Post, 25 July 2007, 1.
100. ‘Naga Hoho Plea for Peace Apex body appeals to both NSCN factions for restraint, The Telegraph, 24 August 2007 at http://www.telegraphindia.com/1070824/asp/northeast/story_8230574.asp (accessed on 24 August 2007).
101. Speech by Keviloto, Secretary, Naga Hoho, Camp Hebron, Near Dimapur, 27 July 2007.
102. Interview with Rumpui Jeme, President, Dima Hasau District Heraka Association, Lodhi Village, Dima Hasau District, 18 July 2007. Heraka is an animist religion of the Nagas, who primarily pray to the Sun. It has been in existence for centuries.
103. See ‘1000 attend Dimapur Rally’, The Telegraph, 5 February 2008.
104. See ‘Dealing with ULFA's Terror’ at http://www.idsa.in/publications/stratcomments/InternalSecurityCluster220107.htm (accessed on 17 January 2006).
105. Field observations, Karbi Anglong, Assam, February 2010.
106. ‘Drugs and HIV: Voices of Hope in India’, UNODC at http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/frontpage/2009/September/drugs-and-hiv_-voices-of-hope-in-india.html (accessed on 17 November 2011).
107. CitationSingh, ‘Manipur: Militant versus Development’.
108. Field insights, Imphal, Manipur, March 2011.
109. See ‘Myanmar Cracks Down on NE Rebels’, Nagaland Post, 20 November 2007 at http://www.nagalandpost.com/Regionaldesc.asp?sectionid = 51101 (accessed on 20 November 2007).
110. Inputs drawn from interview with Bertil Lintner at http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-china-shelters-ulfa-leader-as-reply-to-dalai-lamas-base-in-india/20111101.htm (accessed on 14 November 2011).