Syria and the perils of proxy warfare

Abstract

The ongoing civil war in Syria is evolving into a ‘proxy war’, in which both the Baathist regime and its insurgent adversaries are becoming increasingly reliant upon support from external powers. Proxy warfare has a superficial appeal for sponsoring states, as it appears to offer a convenient and risk-free means of fulfilling foreign policy goals, which will not incur the financial and human costs of direct military intervention. Using Syria as a case study, this article shows that the conduct of proxy warfare has several potential political, strategic, and ethical consequences, which any democratic government in particular is obliged to consider before it resorts to this indirect means of foreign intervention.

Keywords::

• Syria
• civil war
• proxy war

Acknowledgements

The author would like to thank Dr Matthew Ford and the participants at the ‘Life After Counterinsurgency’ symposium (30–31 May 2013) for their comments and criticisms on the original draft of this paper. The analysis, opinions, and conclusions expressed or implied here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the JSCSC, the Defence Academy, the MOD, or any other UK government agency.

Notes

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^3. For a more detailed description, see Hughes, My Enemy's Enemy.

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^9. For a summary of Syria's military capabilities, see IISS, The Military Balance 2011–2012, 348–51. The Syrian Air Force has around 290 Soviet/Russian manufactured fighter and ground attack aircraft (MiG-29, MiG-23, MiG-21, Su-22, and Su-24) and 113 attack helicopters of similar manufacture (notably the Mi-24). Transport helicopters such as the Mi-8 and Mi1–7 have been modified to carry rudimentary bombs. Russia is reported to be still providing weaponry to Syria despite official protestations to the contrary. ‘Revealed; Russia's Double Dealing on Arms to Assad Regime Leaves UK Isolated over Syria’, The Independent (London), 18 February 2013.

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^11. Little, ‘The United States and the Kurds’, 66–84.

^12. Byman, Deadly Connections, 117–54. Harel and Isaacharoff, 34 Days, 181. Jumblatt's insult is a play on the Arabic word for ‘lion’: ‘Assad fi Lubnan warnaab fi al Giulan’.

^13. Hughes, My Enemy's Enemy, 11–12, 20–1.

^14. Ibid., 112–37. See also Coll, Ghost Wars, 56, 90, 125–9.

^15. This is illustrated in Turkey's case by official censorship of media reports on assistance to the Syrian rebellion. See ‘The Press in Turkey: Not so free’, Economist, 6 April 2013.

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^32. Hilsum, Sandstorm. Pollack provides a summary of the Libyan military's weaknesses in previous conflicts in Arabs at War, 422–4. For any potential sponsor of the Syrian rebellion, Russian manufactured weaponry – or similar arms from former Soviet, Warsaw Pact and Yugoslav states – would provide ‘plausible deniability’, given that such weapons have been supplied to the Syrian armed and security forces.

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^36. Kalyvas examines this phenomenon in The Logic of Violence in Civil War.

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^38. ‘Video: Syrian Rebel Cuts Out Soldier's Heart, Eats It’, CNN News, 14 May 2013. http://edition.cnn.com/2013/05/14/world/meast/syria-eaten-heart. The Russian president made the most of this atrocity, expressing disbelief that the West was planning to arm ‘cannibals’. ‘Putin Warns Cameron Against Arming Syrian Rebels As UK Weighs Options’, RT, 16 June 2013. http://rt.com/news/putin-cameron-syria-summit-786/.

^39. ‘Syria's Crisis: No End in Sight’, Economist, 13 October 2012. Syria's Mutating Conflict, 24–31.

^40. ‘Syria's Palestinians: Stateless and Helpless As Ever’, Economist, 17 November 2012. ‘A Syrian Airstrike Kills Palestinian Refugees and Costs Assad Support’, New York Times, 16 December 2012. Sayigh, Armed Struggle and the Search for State, 551–73.

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^42. Najib, ‘Islamist Advance’, 14–17.

^43. The bombing killed Assef Shawkat (the Deputy Defence Minister, and Assad's brother-in-law), Dawoud Rajiha (the Defence Minister), Hasan Turkmani (a former Chief of the Army and crisis manager), and Hisham Ikhtiyar (the head of the National Security Bureau, overseeing the regime's intelligence services). ‘Iran Sends Elite Troops to Aid Bashar Al-Assad Regime in Syria’, Daily Telegraph, 6 September 2012. ‘Iran's Revolutionary Guard Admits It Has Advisors in Syria, Lebanon’, Haaretz (Tel Aviv), 17 September 2012.

^44. ‘Hezbollah Has Been Lured into Unknown Territory in Syria As It Wages Costly Battle for Survival’, Independent, 2 June 2013. ‘Hizbullah May Be Hurting Itself’, Economist online, 22 May 2013. http://www.economist.com/blogs/pomegranate/2013/05/lebanon-and-syria/print.

^45. Dmitri Trenin, ‘Russia's Line in the Sand on Syria’, 5 February 2012. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace website, http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/02/05russia-s-line-in-sand-on-syria/9g77. Eyal, ‘Mr ‘Nyet’: Russia and Her Syrian Friend’, 43–4.

^46. Hughes, My Enemy's Enemy, 21–2, 54.

^47. Rathmell, Secret War in the Middle East, 1–6, 44–50, 128–31, 145–6.

^48. ICG Middle East Report No.141, Too Close for Comfort: Syrians in Lebanon, 13 May 2013.

^49. Joshi, ‘Lebanon Risks Being Torn Apart by Syrian Conflict’. ‘Pro-Hezbollah Fighters, Rebels Clash in Syrian Border Towns: Residents’, The Daily Star (Beirut), 18 October 2012. Bazargan, ‘My Neighbour, My Enemy’.

^50. Alex Taylor, ‘Hasan's Pivotal Security Role’, Daily Star, 20 October 2012. ‘Army Say Gunmen Agree to Truce in Lebanon's Tripoli’, Reuters, 23 October 2012. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/23/us-lebanon-crisis-idUSBRE89L0CK20121023. Young, The Ghosts of Martyrs Square, 2–5, 17–27.

^51. ‘Tensions Rise As Syria Admits It Shot Down Turkish Fighter Jet’, Independent, 23 June 2012. ‘Turkey Strikes Syria, Adds War Powers’, Wall Street Journal (New York), 5 October 2012.

^52. ‘Syrie: l'OTAN s'engage a protéger la Turquie et menace Damas on cas de recours aux armes chimiques’, Le Monde 4 December 2012.

^53.Aras, ‘The Role of Motivation’. ‘Turkey Sends More Troops to Syrian Border’, Jane's Defence Weekly 29/32, 8 August 2012. For a more detailed analysis of the politics of the Kurdish communities in Syria, Turkey, Iraq, and Iran – and their interaction with regional governments – see ICG Middle Eastern Report No.136, Syria's Kurds: A Struggle Within A Struggle. 22 January 2013.

^54. ICG Europe Report, Blurring the Borders, 19–24. Joshi and Stein, ‘Not Quite “Zero Troubles”’, 29.

^55. ‘Under Siege: a Special Report from War-Torn Mosul’, Independent, 12 April 2007. Joshi, ‘Transition from Assad’, 30.

^56. ‘Iraqi al-Qa'ida Declares Takeover of Leading Syrian Rebel Group’, Independent, 9 April 2013. Dodge, Iraq, 188, 193–4. There are reports of Iraqi Shias fighting alongside pro-government militias, see ‘Evidence Mounts of Foreign Fighters Taking Up Arms to Aid Assad Regime’, Times, 23 January 2013.

^57. Hersh used this term to describe Israeli nuclear deterrence in The Sampson Option.

^58. ‘Fate of Syrian Chemical Weapons May Trigger War’, Der Spiegel (Hamburg), 31 July 2012. http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/israel-prepares-plans-to-neutralize-syrian-chemical-weapons-a-847203.html. ‘Israeli Warplanes Launch Air Strike Inside Syria’, BBC News, 4 May 2013, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22409380.

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^60. Ikle, Every War Must End, 108. Gutman, How We Missed the Story.