Seasonal variation of Covid-19 incidence and role of land surface and air temperatures: a case study in the west of Iran

ABSTRACT

.In this study, we assessed the impact of satellite-based Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Air Temperature (AT) on covid-19. First, we spatio-temporally kriged the LST and applied bias correction. The epidemic shape, timing, and size were compared after and before adjusting for the predictors. Given the non-linear behavior of a pandemic, a semi-parametric regression model was used. In addition, the interaction effect between the predictors and season was assessed. Before adjusting for the predictors, the peak happened at the end of hot season. After adjusting, it was attenuated and slightly moved forward. Moreover, the Attributable Fraction (AF) and Peak to Trough Relative (PTR) were % 23 (95% CI; 15, 32) and 1.62 (95%CI; 1.34, 1.97), respectively. We found that temperature might have changed the seasonal variation of covid-19. However, given the large uncertainty after adjusting for the variables, it was hard to provide conclusive evidence in the region we studied.

KEYWORDS:

• Covid-19
• seasonal variation
• ambient temperature
• Iran

Acknowledgements

The authors appreciate the National Department of Environment and Iran Meteorological Organization for providing the data. This study was supported by no organization.

Availability of data and materials

The data is not publicly available due to ethical concerns but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. The R codes are available under request from corresponding author

Consent to participate

The study does not involve human subjects and the data with no personal identification was obtained from health deputy.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Ethics approval

This study was approved by review board of Ethics Committee at Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences with the ethic code of IR.MUK.REC.1401.187.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by no funder, and the corresponding author had main responsibility for the data, study design, analysis and decision to submit for the journal.