The Campaign and its Dynamics at the 2009 German General Election

Abstract

This article analyses the 2009 German federal election campaign with specific emphasis on the three categories of actors that play key roles in contemporary election campaigns – parties and their candidates, the mass media, and the voters. Mainly aiming at a theoretically informed comprehensive description, the article addresses some key themes of the recent literature on electioneering. The Bundestag election on 27 September 2009 was preceded by a campaign that lacked drama. There were several reasons for the absence of a more polarised campaign, not least the fact that CDU/CSU and SPD had been tied together in a Grand Coalition and had to deal with massive political challenges. Against the background of an unclear picture painted by the media, the feasibility and likelihood of various types of government coalitions were dominant topics of the campaign. The CDU/CSU in many respects had an edge over the SPD.

Acknowledgements

We are indebted to Daniela Hohmann, Anja Hoffmann, and Sebastian Schmidt for their assistance in preparing this paper. In addition, we would like to thank the parties' headquarters for providing us with background material about their campaigns for the 2009 federal election.

Notes

See Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck, ‘New Modes of Campaigning’, in Russell J. Dalton and Hans-Dieter Klingemann (eds.), Oxford Handbook on Political Behavior (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007), pp.744–64; Christopher Wlezien, ‘Election Campaigns’, in Lawrence LeDuc, Richard G. Niemi and Pippa Norris (eds), Comparing Democracies 3: Elections and Voting in the 21st Century (Los Angeles: Sage, 2010), pp.98–117.

See Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck, ‘Kampagnenwandel und Wählerwandel: “Fenster der Gelegenheit” für einflussreichere Wahlkämpfe’, in Ulrich Sarcinelli and Jens Tenscher (eds), Machtdarstellung und Darstellungsmacht: Beiträge zu Theorie und Praxis moderner Politikvermittlung (Baden-Baden: Nomos, 2003), pp.199–218; Stefan Merz, Das Kreuz mit dem Kreuz: Unentschlossene Wähler in Deutschland (Baden-Baden: Nomos, 2010).

See Fritz Plasser, Parteien unter Stress: Zur Dynamik der Parteiensysteme in Österreich, Deutschland und den Vereinigten Staaten (Wien: Böhlau, 1987).

See Robert Rohrschneider, ‘Mobilizing versus chasing: how do parties target voters in election campaigns?’, Electoral Studies 21 (2002), pp.367–382.

See Hans-Dieter Klingemann and Katrin Voltmer, ‘Politische Kommunikation als Wahlkampfkommunikation’, in Otfried Jarren, Ulrich Sarcinelli and Ulrich Saxer (eds), Politische Kommunikation in der demokratischen Gesellschaft (Wiesbaden: Westdeutscher Verlag, 1998), pp.396–405; Mona Krewel, ‘Wahlkampfkommunikation im intertemporalen Vergleich: Forschungsdesiderata und -perspektiven bei der Untersuchung von Prozessen des Wandels in Wahlkämpfen’, in Esra Aydin, Matthias Begenat, Christian Michalek and Jasmin Schemann (eds), Düsseldorfer Forum Politische Kommunikation 2007. Schriftenreihe DFPK – Band 3 (Berlin: LIT, 2008), pp.169–97; Claes De Vreese, ‘Campaign Communication and Media’, in LeDuc et al. (eds), Comparing Democracies 3, pp.118–40.

See Manuela Glaab and Michael Weigl, ‘Die Bundestagswahl 2009: Wahlkampf, Ergebnis und Regierungsbildung’, Notes du Cerfa 70 (Paris: IFRI, 2009).

See Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck and Thorsten Faas, ‘The Campaign and its Dynamics at the 2005 German General Election’, German Politics 15 (2006), pp.393–419.

See Frank Brettschneider and Marko Bachl, ‘Die Bundestagswahl 2009 und die Medien’, Politische Studien 428 (2009), pp.46–55.

Financial Times Deutschland, 1 Sept. 2009, p.9.

Spiegel Online, 16 Sept. 2009, available from http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,649279,00.html (accessed 16 March 2010); Helmut van Rinsum and Stefanie Grill, ‘Valium-Wahlkampf der Kanzlerin’, Werben & Verkaufen 40 (2009), pp.18–21.

See Max Kaase and Barbara Pfetsch, ‘Umfrageforschung und Demokratie: Analysen zu einem schwierigen Verhältnis’, in Hans-Dieter Klingemann and Friedhelm Neidhardt (eds), Zur Zukunft der Demokratie: Herausforderungen im Zeitalter der Globalisierung (Berlin: Edition Sigma, 2000), pp.153–82.

See Franz U. Pappi, ‘Regierungsbildung im deutschen Fünf-Parteiensystem’, Politische Vierteljahresschrift 50 (2009), pp.187–202.

See Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck, ‘Kampagnendynamik im Bundestagswahlkampf 2005’, in Oscar W. Gabriel, Bernhard Wessels and Jürgen W. Falter (eds), Wahlen und Wähler: Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 2005 (Wiesbaden: VS-Verlag, 2009), pp.146–76.

See, e.g., Bruce E. Gronbeck, ‘The Web, Campaign 07–08, and Engaged Citizens: Political, Social and Moral Consequences’, in Robert J. Denton (eds), The 2008 Presidential Campaign: A Communication Perspective (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2009), pp.228–43.

See Hagen Albers, ‘Onlinewahlkampf 2009’, Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte 51 (2009), pp.33–8.

See Schmitt-Beck and Faas, ‘The Campaign and its Dynamics at the 2005 German General Election’.

See van Rinsum and Grill, ‘Valium-Wahlkampf der Kanzlerin’.

See Schmitt-Beck and Faas, ‘The Campaign and its Dynamics at the 2005 German General Election’.

See Marc Debus, ‘Das letzte Wahlprogramm für die Bundestagswahl 2009: Die Union rutscht in die Mitte’, Zeit-Online, Politik nach Zahlen, 28 June 2009, available from http://blog.zeit.de/politik-nach-zahlen/2009/06/28/das-letzte-wahlprogramm-fur-die-bundestagswahl-2009-die-union-rutscht-in-die-mitte_1359 (accessed 21 March 2010).

See Brettschneider and Bachl, ‘Die Bundestagswahl 2009 und die Medien’.

See Peter Lösche, ‘Das Ende der Volksparteien’, Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte 51 (2009), pp.6–12; Axel Murswiek, ‘Angela Merkel als Regierungschefin und als Kanzlerkandidatin’, Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte 51 (2009), pp.21–32.

See Richard Hilmer, ‘Bundestagswahl 2009: Ein Wechsel auf Raten’, Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen 41 (2010), pp.147–80.

See Pappi, ‘Regierungsbildung im deutschen Fünf-Parteiensystem’.

Der Stern 29 (2009).

See Glaab and Weigl, ‘Die Bundestagswahl 2009’.

See Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck and Thorsten Faas, ‘Die hessische Landtagswahl vom 18. Januar 2009: der “ewige Koch”’, Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen 40 (2009), pp.358–70.

Spiegel-Online, 6 Sept. 2008, available from http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,576767,00.html (accessed 5 April 2010).

See Brettschneider and Bachl, ‘Die Bundestagswahl 2009 und die Medien’.

See Schmitt-Beck and Faas, ‘The Campaign and its Dynamics at the 2005 German General Election’.

See Debus, ‘Das letzte Wahlprogramm für die Bundestagswahl 2009’.

See Glaab and Weigl, ‘Die Bundestagswahl 2009’.

See Debus, ‘Das letzte Wahlprogramm für die Bundestagswahl 2009’.

See Brettschneider and Bachl, ‘Die Bundestagswahl 2009 und die Medien’, pp.46–55; Lösche, ‘Das Ende der Volksparteien’.

See Debus, ‘Das letzte Wahlprogramm für die Bundestagswahl 2009’.

See Frank Decker, ‘Koalitionsaussagen und Koalitionsbildung’, Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte 51 (2009), pp.20–26.

See Hilmer, ‘Bundestagswahl 2009: Ein Wechsel auf Raten’.

See Debus, ‘Das letzte Wahlprogramm für die Bundestagswahl 2009’.

See Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck and Ansgar Wolsing, ‘Der Wähler begegnet den Parteien. Direkte Kontakte mit der Kampagnenkommunikation der Parteien und ihr Einfluss auf das Wählerverhalten bei der Bundestagswahl 2009’, in Karl-Rudolf Korte (ed.), Die Bundestagswahl 2009: Analysen der Wahl-, Parteien-, Kommunikations- und Regierungsforschung (Wiesbaden: VS-Verlag, 2010), pp.48–68.

See De Vreese, ‘Campaign Communication and Media’.

See Winfried Schulz, Reimar Zeh and Oliver Quiring, ‘Voters in a Changing Media Environment: A Data-based Retrospective on Consequences of Media Change in Germany’, European Journal of Communication 20 (2005), pp.55–88.

See Stefan Geese, Camille Zubayr and Heinz Gerhard, ‘Berichterstattung zur Bundestagswahl 2009 aus Sicht der Zuschauer’, Media Perspektiven 12 (2009), pp.637–50.

All data analyses reported in this article are based on a survey that was conducted as part of the ‘German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES)’ (see http://www.dgfw.eu/gles.php?lang=en). It is a Rolling Cross-Section Survey (RCS) with more than 6,000 respondents that was conducted by phone during the last two months before the 2009 Bundestag election. For a detailed description of these data see Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck, Thorsten Faas and Ansgar Wolsing, ‘Kampagnendynamik bei der Bundestagswahl 2009: die Rolling Cross-Section-Studie im Rahmen der “German Longitudinal Election Study” 2009’, MZES Working Paper 134, Mannheim: MZES 2010, available from http://www.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/publications/wp/wp-134.pdf.

See Schmitt-Beck and Faas, ‘The Campaign and its Dynamics at the 2005 German General Election’.

See Geese et al., ‘Berichterstattung zur Bundestagswahl 2009 aus Sicht der Zuschauer’.

See Frank Brettschneider, ‘Massenmedien und Wählerverhalten’, in Jürgen W. Falter and Harald Schoen (eds), Handbuch Wahlforschung (Wiesbaden: VS-Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, 2005), pp.473–500.

See Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck, Politische Kommunikation und Wählerverhalten: Ein internationaler Vergleich (Wiesbaden: Westdeutscher Verlag, 2000).

See Travis N. Ridout and Michael Franz, ‘Evaluating Measures of Campaign Tone’, Political Communication 25 (2008), pp.158–79.

See Marcus Maurer and Carsten Reinemann, Medieninhalte (Wiesbaden: VS-Verlag, 2006), pp.129–32.

See http://www.ivw.de

See Schmitt-Beck and Faas, ‘The Campaign and its Dynamics at the 2005 German General Election’; Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck, ‘Kampagnendynamik im Bundestagswahlkampf 2005’, in Gabriel et al. (eds), Wahlen und Wähler, pp.146–76.

See Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck and David Farrell, ‘Studying Political Campaigns and their Effects’, in David Farrell and Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck (eds), Do Political Campaigns Matter? Campaign Effects in Elections and Referendums (London/New York: Routledge, 2002), pp.1–21.

See Wlezien, ‘Election Campaigns’.

See Paul F. Lazarsfeld, Bernard Berelson and Hazel Gaudet, The People's Choice: How the Voter Makes up his Mind in a Presidential Campaign, 3rd edition (New York/London: Columbia University Press, 1968).

Figures 2 to 10 are based on the survey described in note 42. They utilize the fact that as a Rolling Cross-Section Survey (RCS) this dataset is uniquely suited to reveal the dynamics of public opinion during the campaign period. A random sample of more than 6,000 voters was interviewed over a period of two months before the election, with an average of about 100 interviews conducted on each day of the period of observation. These daily interviews were conducted in such a way that not only the entire sample, but also the interviews collected on each day constitute random samples from the universe of German citizens aged 18 and above. Since for the individual days of observation within RCS studies only relatively small numbers of cases are available, rather large random errors must be taken into account. Analyses directly generated from raw data thus tend to produce rather uneven distributions. Usage of smoothing procedures is therefore advisable in order to arrive at clear representations of the underlying trends in the data. The lines displayed in Figures 2 to 10 were generated using the nonparametric regression procedure (robust) LOWESS for this purpose, see William S. Cleveland, The Elements of Graphing Data, rev. edition (Murray Hill, NJ: AT&T Bell Labs, 1994); John Fox, Nonparametric Simple Regression: Smoothing Scatterplots (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 2000). All analyses are based on a bandwidth of 0.25. Since due to the complicated sampling design of RCS surveys interviews collected on the first days do not yet constitute proper random samples, all dynamic analyses presented in this article start only on 3 August. The data were weighted by education on a daily basis.

Due to the well-known phenomenon of over-reporting the actual percentage of non-voters is underestimated in our survey; see, e.g., Carol A. Cassel, ‘Overreporting and Electoral Participation Research’, American Politics Research 31 (2003), pp.81–92.

For the Greens and the Left Party, due to time constraints only one of the respective two lead candidates could be included in the survey.

See, e.g., Angelika Vetter and Oskar W. Gabriel, ‘Candidate Evaluations and Party Choice in Germany, 1972–94: Do Candidates Matter?’, in Christopher J. Anderson and Carsten Zelle (eds), Stability and Change in German Elections: How Electorates Merge, Converge, or Collide (Westport, CT/London, 1998), pp.71–98.

See Thomas Gschwend and Franz U. Pappi, ‘Stimmensplitting und Koalitionswahl’, in Frank Brettschneider, Jan van Deth and Edeltraud Roller (eds), Die Bundestagswahl 2002 (Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, 2004), pp.167–83.

See Andreas M. Wüst, ‘Stimmung, Projektion, Prognose?’, in Andreas M. Wüst (eds), Politbarometer (Opladen: Leske + Budrich, 2003), pp.83–107.

See Schmitt-Beck, ‘Kampagnendynamik im Bundestagswahlkampf 2005’.

Ibid.