Economic Voting in Times of Economic Crisis

Abstract

The economic crisis hit Germany hard before the 2009 Bundestag election. Against this background the extent of economic voting in this particular election is analysed. As economic perceptions are often believed to be important determinants of voting behaviour the following questions are addressed in this article. Are perceptions of the voters' personal and the general economic situation influenced by the economic crisis and thus worse than in previous election years? How do these perceptions impact on the decision to vote in 2009? What effect do attributions of the government's responsibility for the economic situation have on economic voting models and how do they interact with other predictors? Finally, did economic evaluations affect the decision to vote in favour of the parties of the old government (CDU/CSU and SPD) or the new government (CDU/CSU and FDP), respectively? Answers to these questions are provided by an analysis of the data of the 2009 German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES).

Notes

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In fact, interpreting just regression coefficients in interaction models does not provide any value added when testing for interaction effects. Even levels of significance are not important at all. See T. Brambor, W.R. Clark and M. Golder, ‘Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses’, Political Analysis 14 (2006), pp.63–82.

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See, e.g., Kellermann and Rattinger, ‘Wahrnehmung der Wirtschaftslage’, ‘Economic Conditions’, and Maier and Rattinger, ‘Economic Conditions’.