The Prospects of the FDP in Comparative Perspective: Rest in Peace or Totgesagte leben länger?

Abstract

This article examines the conditions under which political parties that have dropped below the threshold of legislative representation later re-enter parliament. To do so, it compares two German parties that did not return to the Bundestag and two that did. In light of the ‘lessons' of previous cases in the Federal Republic, the essay considers the prospects of the Free Democratic Party (FDP) in the wake of its 2013 federal election defeat.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

David F. Patton teaches European politics in the Department of Government and International Relations at Connecticut College in New London, CT. He was a visiting Fulbright Scholar at the European University Viadrina in Frankfurt/Oder in Spring/Summer 2014.

Notes

1 Focus, ‘Verträge schon gekündigt: FDP-Debakel kostet bis zu 600-Mitarbeiter ihren Job’, 23 Sep. 2013, available from http://www.focus.de/finanzen/news/vertraege-schon-gekuendigt-fdp-debakel-kostet-bis-zu-600-mitarbeiter-ihren-job_aid_1109559.html (accessed 21 Nov. 2014).

2 Several small parties that had achieved parliamentary representation in 1949 departed four years later.

3 By winning two districts in eastern Berlin, the PDS placed two Bundestag deputies. Yet because they did not form a caucus or parliamentary group, they had circumscribed rights and limited resources in the Bundestag.

4 Mogens N. Pedersen, ‘Towards a New Typology of Party Lifespans and Minor Parties’, Scandinavian Political Studies 5/1 (1982), pp.1–16 at p.12.

5 Ibid., esp. pp.6–9; Giovanni Sartori, Parties and Party Systems: A Framework for Analysis (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1976), pp.122–3.

6 Kris Deschouwer, ‘Comparing Newly Governing Parties’, in Kris Deschouwer (ed.), New Parties in Government: In Power for the First Time (London: Routledge, 2008), pp.3–4.

7 Kenneth Janda, Political Parties: A Cross-National Survey (New York: The Free Press, 1980), p.162; papers prepared for ECPR Joint Sessions, workshop on ‘Patterns of Party Persistence, Decline and Disintegration’, St Gallen, 12–17 April 2011.

8 Janda, Political Parties, p.166.

9 Ibid.

10 Gordon Smith, ‘A System Perspective on Party System Change’, Journal of Theoretical Politics 1/3 (1989), pp.349–63, esp. p.357; emphasis original.

11 Ibid.

12 Steven B. Wolinetz, ‘Lingering Death, Absorption and Replacement: Why Older Parties Rarely Fade Away’, Paper prepared for the workshop on ‘Patterns of Party Persistence, Decline, and Disintegration’. European Consortium for Political Research: Joint Workships, St Gallen, Switzerland, 13–18 April 2011.

13 Nicole Bolleyer and Evelyn Bytzek, ‘Origins of Party Formation and New Party Success in Advanced Democracies’, European Journal of Political Research 52/6 (2013), pp.773–96.

14 Eoin O'Malley, ‘Punch Bag for Heavyweights? Minor Parties in Irish Government’, Irish Political Studies 25/4 (2010), pp.539–61.

15 For instance, operating in political environments that had grown inhospitable following the initial post-communist transition, numerous eastern European Green parties found themselves without parliamentary representation after a brief stint in office. Wolfgang Rüdig, ‘Is Government Good for Greens? Comparing the Electoral Effects of Government Participation in Western and East-Central Europe’, European Journal of Political Research 45/S1 (2006), pp.S127–54.

16 Pedersen, ‘Towards a New Typology of Party Lifespans’, p.11.

17 Mogens N. Pedersen, ‘The Birth, Life and Death of Small Parties in Danish Politics’, in Ferdinand Müller-Rommel and Geoffrey Pridham (eds), Small Parties in Western Europe: Comparative and Nationalist Perspectives (London: Sage, 1991), pp.111–12.

18 Ibid., p.111.

19 Paul Lucardie, ‘Prophets, Purifies and Prolocutors: Towards a Theory on the Emergence of New Parties’, Party Politics 6/2 (2000), pp.175–85.

20 In the 1949 federal election, small parties had benefitted from a permissive electoral system, which ensured representation for those that crossed the 5 per cent mark in a single federal state or won a single constituency. By 1957, as it is today, a party would have to win 5 per cent of the second ballot vote nationally or three constituency seats outright in order to enter the lower house.

21 Rudolph Holzgräber, ‘Die DP – Partei eines neuen Konservatismus?’, in Max Gustav Lange et al. (eds), Parteien in der Bundesrepublik. Studien zur Entwicklung der deutschen Parteien bis zur Bundestagswahl 1953 (Stuttgart: Ring-Verlag, 1955), pp.417–19; Horst W. Schmollinger, ‘Deutsche Partei’, in Richard Stöss (ed.), Parteien-Handbuch. Die Parteien der Bundesrepublik 1945–1980 (Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag, 1983), pp.1047–51.

22 Schmollinger, ‘Deutsche Partei’, p.1035.

23 Ibid., p.1037.

24 Heino Kaack, Geschichte und Struktur des deutschen Parteiensystems (Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag, 1971), p.239.

25 Schmollinger, ‘Deutsche Partei’, p.1097.

26 Kaack, Geschichte und Struktur des deutschen Parteiensystems, pp.258–9.

27 Richard Stöss, ‘Gesamtdeutscher Block/BHE’, in Stöss (ed.), Parteien-Handbuch, p.1454.

28 Franz Neumann, Der Block der Heimatvetriebenen und Entrechteten: Ein Beitrag zur Geschichte und Struktur einer politischen Interessenpartei (Meisenheim am Glan: Hain Verlag, 1968), p.351.

29 See ibid., pp.168–85.

30 Kaack, Geschichte und Struktur des deutschen Parteiensystems, p.224.

31 Oskar Niedermayer, ‘Die Entwicklung des bundesdeutschen Parteiensystems’, in Frank Decker and Viola Neu (eds), Handbuch der deutschen Parteien (Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, 2007), p.121.

32 Thomas Poguntke, ‘New Politics and Party Systems: The Emergence of a New Type of Party’, West European Politics 10/1 (1987), pp.78–9.

33 See Wilhelm Bürklin and Russell J. Dalton, ‘Das Ergrauen der Grünen’, in Hans-Dieter Klingemann and Max Kaase (eds), Wahlen und Wähler. Analysen aus Anlaß der Bundestagswahl 1990 (Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag, 1994), p.265, especially literature indicated in footnote 5.

34 E. Gene Frankland and Donald Schoonmaker, Between Protest & Power: The Green Party in Germany (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1992), pp.224–6.

35 E. Gene Frankland, ‘The Evolution of the Greens in Germany: From Amateurism to Professionalism’, in E. Gene Frankland, Paul Lucardie and Benoît Rihoux (eds), Green Parties in Transition: The End of Grass-Roots Democracy (Surrey: Ashgate, 2008), pp.30–1.

36 Ronald F. Inglehart, ‘Changing Values among Western Publics from 1970–2006’, West European Politics 31/1–2 (2008), pp.130–46; Scott C. Flanagan and Aie-Rie Lee, ‘The New Politics, Cultural Wars, and the Authoritarian-Libertarian Value Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies’, Comparative Political Studies 36/3 (2003), pp.235–70; Herbert Kitschelt, The Logics of Party Formation: Ecological Politics in Belgium and West Germany (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University, Press, 1989).

37 For accounts of the PDS's challenges, see Stuart Gapper, ‘The Rise and Fall of Germany's Party of Democratic Socialism’, German Politics 12/2 (2003), esp. pp.79–81; Gero Neugebauer and Richard Stöss, ‘Die PDS in Not’, in Oskar Niedermayer (ed.), Die Parteien nach der Bundestagswahl 2002 (Opladen: Leske + Budrich, 2003), pp.125–58.

38 David F. Patton, ‘Germany's Left Party.PDS and the “Vacuum-Thesis”: From Regional Milieu Party to Left Alternative?’, Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics 22/2 (2006), pp.206–27.

39 Hans-Jörg Dietsche, ‘Eine “Renaissance” der kleinen Parteien? Zu den Entwicklungsmöglichkeitein kleineren Parteien im deutschen Volksparteiensystem’, in Uwe Jun, Henry Kreikenborn and Viola Neu (eds), Kleine Parteien im Aufwind: Zur Veränderung der deutschen Parteienlandschaft (Frankfurt: Campus Verlag, 2006), p.71.

40 See Jürgen Dittberner, Die FDP: Geschichte, Personen, Organisation, Perspektiven. Eine Einführung, revised 2nd edn (Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, 2010), pp.274–6; see also Oskar Niedermayer, ‘Aufsteiger, Absteiger und ewige “Sonstige”: Klein- und Kleinstparteien bei der Bundestagswahl 2013’, Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen 45/1 (2014), pp.73–93, esp. pp.78–82.

41 Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, ‘Zweitstimmenkampagne: “Wer Merkel haben will, wählt die FDP”’, 9 Sep. 2013, available from http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/bundestagswahl/zweitstimmenkampagne-wer-merkel-haben-will-waehlt-fdp-12576086.html (accessed 21 Nov. 2014).

42 Ibid.

43 Data from infratest dimap, http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2013-09-22-BT-DE/analyse-wanderung.shtml (accessed 21 Nov. 2014).

44 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, ‘Bundestagswahl 2013: Kurzanalyse’, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 22 Sep. 2013, p.2, available from http://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Wahlen/Wahlanalysen/Newsl_BTW_2013.pdf (accessed 15 May 2014).

45 See Renate Köcher, ‘Allensbach-Analyse: Liberalismus ohne Zukunft’, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 22 Oct. 2013, available from http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/allensbach-analyse-liberalismus-ohne-zukunft-12629174.html (accessed 21 Nov. 2014); Thomas Petersen, ‘Allensbach-Umfrage: Der geteilte Liberalismus’, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 25 Jan. 2012, available from http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/allensbach-umfrage-der-geteilte-liberalismus-11622356.html (accessed 21 Nov. 2014).

46 ‘Interview Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann: FDP-Vize erwägt neuen Namen für ihre Partei’, RP Online, 28 Jun. 2014, available from http://www.rp-online.de/nrw/staedte/duesseldorf/fdp-vize-erwaegt-neuen-namen-fuer-ihre-partei-aid-1.4347314 (accessed 21 Nov. 2014).

47 Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, ‘Führende Grüne: “Wir sollten die liberale Partei sein”’, 8 Jun. 2014, available from http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/gruene-wir-sollten-die-liberale-partei-sein-12978224.html (accessed 21 Nov. 2014).

48 Oliver Georgi, ‘Alternative für Deutschland: “Wir sind die Erben der FDP”’, 22 Sep. 2013, available from http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/bundestagswahl/alternative-fuer-deutschland-wir-sind-die-erben-der-fdp-12585743.html (accessed 21 Nov. 2014).

49 ‘Harte “APO”-Zeiten: FDP muss sparen’, merkur-online.de, 11 May 2014, available from http://www.merkur-online.de/aktuelles/politik/harte-apo-zeiten-muss-sparen-zr-3545522.html (accessed 21 Nov. 2014).

50 Oskar Niedermayer, ‘Parteimitglieder in Deutschland: Version 2013’, Arbeitshefte aus dem Otto-Stammer-Zentrum Nr. 20, FU Berlin, 2013, p.2.

51 Viola Neu, ‘Europawahl in Deutschland am 25. Mai 2014: Eine Analyse’, Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Berlin, May 2014, p.15.

52 Deutscher Bundestag, 18. Wahlperiode, Drucksache 18/401, Bekanntmachung von Rechenschaftsberichten politischer Parteien für das Kalenderjahr 2012, pp.15–16.

53 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, ‘Bundestagswahl 2009: Kurzanalyse’, 28 Sep. 2009, p.3, available from http://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Wahlen/Wahlanalysen/Newsl_BTW09.pdf (accessed 21 Nov. 2014).

54 Frank Decker and Eckhard Jesse, ‘“Koalitionspolitik” vor und nach der Bundestagswahl 2013’, Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte 63/48–49 (2013), p.50.

55 In the past, votes for CDU constituency candidates led to overhang mandates, yet these are now offset in part by additional mandates going to the other parties.

56 See Matthias Jung, Yvonne Schroth and Andrea Wolf, ‘Angela Merkels Sieg in der Mitte’, Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte 63/48–49 (2013), p.19; see also, Decker and Jesse, ‘“Koalitionspolitik” vor und nach der Bundestagswahl 2013’.