Social Cleavages and Electoral Behaviour in Long-Term Perspective: Alignment without Mobilisation?

Abstract

On the occasion of the Federal Election 2009, Germany experienced a drastic decline in turnout. In 2013, the most recent Federal Election, turnout was thus a political issue hotly debated in the media and the Social Democrats ran an explicit non-voter campaign. Nevertheless, turnout rates remained at a low level, and the election resulted in the second lowest turnout in the entire history of post-war Germany. At the same time the SPD, one of the traditionally cleavage-based parties in Germany, suffered equally dramatic losses in terms of electoral support in 2009 from which it did not recover in the succeeding election. While the sudden decline of the vote share of a cleavage-based party may cast doubt on previous findings of a relative stability of cleavage voting in Germany, the almost parallel decline in turnout points to a blind spot in the cleavage voting literature. This research has focused exclusively on the role of social cleavages in shaping choices between parties, and thus has neglected the possibility that cleavages erode due to a decline in electoral mobilisation of cleavage groups. The present article looks at the long-term and short-term changes in party choice and turnout in the social groups that traditionally formed the constituency of the main cleavage parties, the SPD and the CDU/CSU. In doing so, the article also examines whether and how these changes in party vote and electoral participation are related to cohort and period effects. Empirically, we show that a decline in the support for the SPD among the working class consists of both long-term and short-term components, but it does not lead to vote defection yet mostly to abstention from voting. Further it shows that the CDU/CSU is unaffected by the mobilisation problems that plague Social Democracy in Germany. However, first long-term effects are visible across birth cohorts. Younger core religious groups are increasingly opting for other parties.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Martin Elff is a Professor of Political Sociology at Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen. Before, he worked as lecturer at the University of Essex and the University of Konstanz. His research interests are in comparative politics, political behaviour and political methodology. He has published on various topics within these fields in journals such as Electoral Studies, German Politics, Perspectives on Politics and Political Analysis.

Sigrid Roßteutscher is a full professor at the Faculty of Social Sciences at the Goethe University Frankfurt/Main. She has completed her PhD at the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence, Italy and obtained her post-doctoral qualifications (Habilitation) at the University of Mannheim. Her research interests are on religion and politics, social capital and political participation, particularly electoral participation. She is author and editor of numerous publications including Voters on the Move or on the Run? (Oxford University Press, 2014; with Bernhard Weßels, Hans Rattinger and Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck); Social Capital and Associations in European Democracies: A Comparative Analysis (2007; with William A. Maloney) and has published in European Sociological Review, American Behavioral Scientist, European Political Science Review, Political Studies, European Political Studies and German Politics.

Notes

1 M. Steinbrecher and H. Rattinger, ‘Die Wahlbeteiligung’, in H. Rattinger, S. Roßteutscher, R. Schmitt-Beck, B. Weßels et al., Zwischen Langeweile und Extremen: Die Bundestagswahl 2009 (Baden-Baden: Nomos, 2011), p.77.

2 P. Lamers and S. Roßteutscher, ‘Die Wahlbeteiligung’, in R. Schmitt-Beck et al., Zwischen Fragmentierung und Konzentration: Die Bundestagswahl 2013 (Baden-Baden: Nomos, 2014), pp.120–1.

3 A. Schäfer and W. Streeck, ‘Introduction: Politics in the Age of Austerity’, in A. Schäfer and W. Streeck (eds), Politics in the Age of Austerity (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2013), pp.1–25; A. Schäfer, S. Abendschön and S. Roßteutscher, ‘Are Turnout Differences Small? A Closer Look at Western Europe’, Paper Presented at the 8th ECPR General Conference, University of Glasgow, 3–6 Sept. 2014.

4 A. Schäfer and S. Roßteutscher, ‘Die soziale Topografie der Nichtwahl’, in K.-R. Korte (ed.), Die Bundestagswahl 2013: Analysen der Wahl-, Parteien-, Kommunikations- und Regierungsforschung (Wiesbaden: Springer VS, 2015), pp.99–118; A. Schäfer et al., ‘Are Turnout Differences Small?’; A. Schäfer, ‘Der Nichtwähler als Durchschnittsbürger: Ist die sinkende Wahlbeteiligung eine Gefahr für die Demokratie?’, in E. Bytzek and S. Roßteutscher (eds), Der unbekannte Wähler? Mythen und Fakten über das Wahlverhalten der Deutschen (Frankfurt am Main: Campus, 2011), pp.133–54; S. Abendschön and S. Roßteutscher, ‘Wahlbeteiligung junger Erwachsener – Steigt die soziale und Politische Ungleichheit’, in S. Roßteutscher, T. Faas and U. Rosar (eds), Bürger und Wähler im Wandel der Zeit. 25 Jahre Wahl- und Einstellungsforschung in Deutschland (Wiesbaden: Springer VS, 2016), pp.67–91.

5 S.M. Lipset and S. Rokkan, ‘Cleavage Structures, Party Systems, and Voter Alignments: An Introduction’, in S.M. Lipset and S. Rokkan (eds), Party Systems and Voter Alignments (New York: The Free Press, 1967), pp.1–64; D.W. Rae and M. Taylor, The Analysis of Political Cleavages (New Haven, CT/London: Yale University Press, 1970); S. Bartolini and P. Mair, Identity, Competition and Electoral Availability: The Stabilisation of European Electorates 1885–1985 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990).

6 R. Inglehart, Culture Shift in Advanced Industrial Society (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1990); R. Dalton, S. Flanagan and P.A. Beck, Electoral Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies: Realignment or Dealignment? (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984); S. Roßteutscher and P. Scherer, ‘Ideologie und Wertorientierungen’, in Rattinger et al., Zwischen Langeweile und Extremen, pp.131–46; S. Roßteutscher and P. Scherer, ‘Links und Rechts im politischen Raum: Eine vergleichende Analyse der ideologischen Entwicklung in Ost- und Westdeutschland’, in B. Weßels, H. Schoen and O.W. Gabriel (eds), Wahlen und Wähler. Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 2009 (Wiesbaden: Springer VS, 2013), pp.380–406.

7 T.N. Clark and S.M. Lipset, ‘Are Social Classes Dying?’, International Sociology 6/4 (1991), pp.397–410; T.N. Clark, S.M. Lipset and M. Rempel, ‘The Declining Political Significance of Class’, International Sociology 8/3 (1993), pp.293–316; R. Dahrendorf, The Modern Social Conflict: An Essay on the Politics of Liberty (London: Weidenfeld & Nicholson, 1988).

8 J.H. Goldthorpe, D. Lockwood, F. Bechhofer and J. Platt, The Affluent Worker in the Class Structure (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1968) and J. Myles, ‘States, Labour Markets and Life Cycles’, in R. Friedland and A.F. Robertson (eds), Beyond the Marketplace: Rethinking Economy and Society (New York: De Gruyter, 1990), pp.271–98.

9 S. Bartolini and P. Mair, Identity, Competition and Electoral Availability: The Stabilisation of European Electorates 1885–1985 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), p.221.

10 See S. Roßteutscher, ‘Die konfessionell-religiöse Konfliktlinie zwischen Säkularisierung und Mobilisierung’, Politische Vierteljahresschrift, Sonderband 45 (2012), pp.114–16.

11 Ibid., p.116.

12 Although the SPD increasingly competes with the Left Party for the votes of workers, see M. Elff and S. Roßteutscher, ‘Stability or Realignment? Class, Religion and the Vote in Germany’, German Politics 20/1 (2011), pp.111–31. See also M. Debus, ‘Sozialstrukturelle und einstellungsbasierte Determinanten des Wahlverhaltens und ihr Einfluss bei Bundestagswahlen im Zeitverlauf: Westdeutschland 1976 bis 2009′, Politische Vierteljahresschrift, Special Issue 45 (2012), p.57.

13 M. Elff, ‘Disenchanted Workers, Selective Abstention and the Electoral Defeat of Social Democracy in Germany’, APSA 2010 Annual Meeting Paper, available from http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1644676 (accessed 31 May 2015); A. Schäfer, Der Verlust politischer Gleichheit. Warum die sinkende Wahlbeteiligung der Demokratie schadet (Frankfurt am Main: Campus, 2015), pp.135–7; W. Müller and M. Klein, ‘Die Klassenbasis in der Parteipräferenz des deutschen Wählers. Erosion oder Wandel?’, Politische Vierteljahresschrift, Special Issue 45 (2012), pp.106–7, report a clear erosion of class voting among the youngest generations.

14 M. Elff and S. Roßteutscher, ‘Parteiwahl und Nichtwahl: Zur Rolle sozialer Konfliktlinien’, in H. Schoen and B. Wessels (eds), Wahlen und Wähler. Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 2013 (Wiesbaden: Springer VS, 2016), pp.45–69.

15 For a similar argument, see R. Rohrschneider, R. Schmitt-Beck and F. Jung, ‘Short-Term Factors versus Long-Term Values: Explaining the 2009 Election Result’, Electoral Studies 31/1 (2012), pp.20–34.

16 J.E. Lane and S. Ersson, Politics and Society in Western Europe (London: Sage, 1994); Rae and Taylor, Analysis of Political Cleavages; Z. Enyedi, ‘The Role of Agency in Cleavage Formation’, European Journal of Political Research 44/5 (2005), pp.697–720.

17 R. Schmitt-Beck, ‘New Modes of Campaigning’, in R.J. Dalton and H.-D. Klingemann (eds), Oxford Handbook on Political Behavior (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007), p.745.

18 See, for example, ibid., p.747; R. Rohrschneider, ‘Mobilizing versus Chasing: How Do Parties Target Voters in Election Campaigns?’, Electoral Studies 21/3 (2002), p.367.

19 J.E. Lane and S. Ersson, ‘Parties and Voters: What Creates the Ties?’, Scandinavian Political Studies 20/2 (1997), p.179.

20 Lane and Ersson, Politics and Society; Rae and Taylor, Analysis of Political Cleavages; Enyedi, ‘The Role of Agency in Cleavage Formation’.

21 A. Przeworski and J. Sprague, Paper Stones: A History of Electoral Socialism (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1986).

22 F.U. Pappi, ‘Die konfessionell-religiöse Konfliktlinie in der deutschen Wählerschaft. Entstehung, Stabilität und Wandel?’, in D. Oberndörfer, H. Rattinger and K. Schmitt (eds), Wirtschaftlicher Wandel, Religiöser Wandel und Wertwandel (Berlin: Duncker & Humblot, 1985), pp.263–90.

23 Ibid., p.264.

24 S. Roßteutscher, Religion, Zivilgesellschaft, Demokratie. Eine international vergleichende Studie zur Natur religiöser Märkte und der demokratischen Rolle religiöser Zivilgesellschaften (Baden-Baden: Nomos, 2009), pp.177–216.

25 See, for example, H. Wiesenthal, ‘Gewerkschaften in Politik und Gesellschaft: Niedergang und Wiederkehr des “Modells Deutschland”’, in W. Schröder (ed.), Handbuch Gewerkschaften in Deutschland (Wiesbaden: Springer VS, 2014), pp.400–1.

26 F.U. Pappi, ‘Die politisierte Sozialstruktur heute', in F. Brettschneider, J.V. Deth and E. Roller (eds), Das Ende der politisierten Sozialstruktur (Opladen: Leske & Budrich, 2002), pp.25−64.

27 Ibid.; Roßteutscher, ‘Die konfessionell-religiöse Konfliktlinie’.

28 For evidence on Germany, see K. Arzheimer and H. Schoen, ‘Mehr als eine Erinnerung an das 19. Jahrhundert? Das sozioökonomische und das religiös-konfessionelle Cleavage und Wahlverhalten 1994–2005′, in H. Rattinger, O.W. Gabriel and J.W. Falter (eds), Der gesamtdeutsche Wahler: Stabilität und Wandel des Wählerverhaltens im wiedervereinigten Deutschland (Baden-Baden: Nomos, 2007), pp.89–112; M. Debus, ‘Soziale Konfliktlinien und Wahlverhalten: Eine Analyse der Determinanten der Wahlabsicht bei Bundestagswahlen von 1969 bis 2009′, Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie 62/4 (2010), pp.731–49; M. Elff and S. Roßteutscher, ‘Die Entwicklung sozialer Konfliktlinien in den Wahlen von 1994 bis 2005′, in J.W. Falter, O.W. Gabriel and B. Wessels (eds), Wahlen und Wähler. Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 2005 (Wiesbaden: VS Verlag, 2009), pp.307–27; Elff and Roßteutscher, ‘Stability or Realignment?’, p.125. From a comparative perspective, see C. Raymond, ‘The Continued Salience of Religious Voting in the United States, Germany, and Great Britain’, Electoral Studies 30/1 (2011), pp.125–35; M. Elff, ‘Social Structure and Electoral Behavior in Comparative Perspective: The Decline of Social Cleavages in Western Europe Revisited’, Perspectives on Politics 5/2 (2007), pp.277–94; M. Elff, ‘Social Divisions, Party Positions, and Electoral Behaviour’, Electoral Studies 28/2 (2009), pp.297–308; G. Evans (ed.), The End of Class Politics? Class Voting in Comparative Context (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999).

29 Elff and Roßteutscher, ‘Parteiwahl und Nichtwahl’.

30 C. Wolf and S. Roßteutscher, ‘Religiosität und politische Orientierung – Radikalisierung, Traditionalisierung oder Entkopplung?’, Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie 65/1 (2013), pp.149–81.

31 Ibid., p.171; Elff and Roßteutscher, ‘Parteiwahl und Nichtwahl’.

32 Elff, ‘Disenchanted Workers’; Schäfer et al., ‘Are Turnout Differences Small?’; Schäfer and Roßteutscher, ‘Die soziale Topografie der Nichtwahl’; Abendschön and Roßteutscher, ‘Wahlbeteiligung junger Erwachsener’; A. Schäfer, Der Verlust politischer Gleichheit: Warum die sinkende Wahlbeteiligung der Demokratie schadet (Frankfurt am Main: Campus, 2015); Müller and Klein, ‘Die Klassenbasis in der Parteipräferenz’.

33 Elff and Roßteutscher, ‘Parteiwahl und Nichtwahl'.

34 H. Rattinger, S. Roßteutscher, R. Schmitt-Beck, B. Weßels and C. Wolf, Vor- und Nachwahl-Querschnitt (Kumulation) (GLES2013) (Köln: GESIS Datenarchiv, 2014, ZA5702 Datenfile Version 1.0.0, doi:10.4232/1.11891).

35 H.B.G. Ganzeboom and D.J. Treiman, ‘International Stratification and Mobility File: Conversion Tools’ (2001), available from http://www.harryganzeboom.nl/ISMF/index.htm (accessed 31. May 2015).

36 Elff and Roßteutscher, ‘Stability or Realignment’.

37 Although there is no theoretical account why the free churches should be related to the German cleavage structure, we decided not to exclude this category from the analysis to avoid losses of cases.

38 J.W. Falter, O.W. Gabriel and H. Rattinger, Politische Einstellungen, politische Partizipation und Wählerverhalten im vereinigten Deutschland: Repräsentativbefragungen 1994/1998/2002. ZA3065, ZA3066, ZA3861 (Köln: Zentralarchiv für Empirische Sozialforschung, 2004); B. Weßels, Nachwahlstudie zur Bundestagswahl 2005: Testmodul der 3. Welle der ‘Comparative Study of Electoral Systems’ (CSES) (Berlin: Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), 2006), available from https://www.wzb.eu/en/research/dynamics-of-political-systems/democracy-and-democratization/downloads/cses-2005 (accessed 31 May 2015) H. Rattinger, S. Roßteutscher, R. Schmitt-Beck and B. Weßels, Vor- und Nachwahl-Querschnitt (Kumulation) (GLES 2009) (Köln: GESIS Datenarchiv, 2012, ZA5302 Datenfile Version 6.0.0, doi:10.4232/1.11373); H. Rattinger, S. Roßteutscher, R. Schmitt-Beck, B. Weßels and C. Wolf, Vor- und Nachwahl-Querschnitt (Kumulation) (GLES 2013) (Köln: GESIS Datenarchiv, 2014, ZA5702 Datenfile Version 1.0.0, doi:10.4232/1.11891). Where these election studies consist of a pre- and a post-election wave, we pool these waves and look at vote intentions and recalled vote decisions in combination.

39 Our attempts at tracking these changes with available panel data suffered from massive panel attrition between 2005 and 2009.

40 Przeworski and Sprague, Paper Stones.

41 See, for example, M.N. Franklin, Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies since 1945 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004).

42 As results concerning denomination and church attendance are almost identical, we restrict the following analyses to one of the two aspects of religious voting.

43 To be more precise, the tables in the Appendix show the complete models, whereas the following discussion rests on models where statistically insignificant factors were dropped.

44 B.J. Graubard and E.L. Korn, ‘Predictive Margins with Survey Data’, Biometrics 55/2 (1999), pp.652–9; M.J. Hanmer and K. Ozan Kalkan, ‘Behind the Curve: Clarifying the Best Approach to Calculating Predicted Probabilities and Marginal Effects from Limited Dependent Variable Models’, American Journal of Political Science 57/1 (2013), pp.263–77.

45 G. King, M. Tomz and J. Wittenberg, ‘Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation’, American Journal of Political Science 44/2 (2000), pp.347–61.

46 It should also be noted that in the election study of 2009, respondents who did not state being a member of a church or religion were not asked about their church attendance under the assumption that they would not go to church. To make the data consistent over the election studies, we recoded all those who stated not being a member of a church or religion as never going to church.

47 For details, see, for example, I. Bieber and S. Roßteutscher, ‘Große Koalition und Wirtschaftskrise: Zur Ausgangslage der Bundestagswahl 2009′, in Rattinger et al., Zwischen Langeweile und Extremen, pp.17–31; M. Krewel, R. Schmitt-Beck and A. Wolsing, ‘Geringe Polarisierung, unklare Mehrheiten und starke Personalisierung: Parteien und Wähler im Wahlkampf’, in Rattinger et al., Zwischen Langeweile und Extremen, pp.33–57.

48 The fact that in 2005 there was no decrease in turnout among the working class might be explained by the particularly polarising and mobilising election campaign. See, for example, R. Schmitt-Beck, ‘Kampagnendynamik im Bundestagswahlkampf 2005′, in O.W. Gabriel, B. Weßels and Jürgen W. Falter (eds), Wahlen und Wähler. Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 2005 (Wiesbaden: VS Verlag, 2009), pp.146–76. For the effects of electoral competition and mobilisation, see also Franklin, Voter Turnout.