No Longer the Elephant Outside the Room: Why the Ukraine Crisis Reflects a Deeper Shift Towards German Leadership of European Foreign Policy

Abstract

Germany’s position as Europe’s predominant economic power has long been recognised. In recent years it has also emerged as a leading European foreign policy actor, although its willingness and capacity to play an explicit leadership role are debated. In particular, the ‘geo-economic’ analyses of Kundnani (The Paradox of German Power, 2014) and Szabo (Germany, Russia and the Rise of Geo-Economics, 2015) argue that German foreign policy is increasingly focused on narrow calculations of national interest resulting in a decline in the instinctive multilateralism that has characterised its international engagement since 1949. This article uses the German response to the current Ukraine crisis to contest these arguments. Examining both German engagement with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy, a crucial component of its foreign policy-making, and its response to the Ukraine crisis, the article contends that far from becoming more unilateral, a more vigorous German multilateralism is emerging. This seeks to fully utilise all available multilateral channels and in turn reflects how far the centre of gravity in European foreign policy-making has shifted towards Berlin.

Acknowledgement

I would like to thank Christine Reh (UCL), Nick Sitter (CEU) and Marco Siddi (FIIA) for their helpful comments on earlier drafts of this article, as well as the two anonymous reviewers whose feedback and suggestions are greatly appreciated.

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr Nicholas Wright teaches EU politics in the Department of Political Science at University College London. His research focuses on foreign, defence and security policy-making by EU member states at national and supranational levels, and on the foreign policy consequences for the UK and EU of Brexit. His book Co-operation, Co-optation and Competition - The EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy in Germany and the UK will be published by Palgrave Macmillan later this year.

Notes

1 FCO internal seminar, London, January 2015.

2 The ‘E3 + 3’ (or P5 + 1) consisted of France, Germany and Great Britain, joined from 2006 by China, Russia and the United States.

3 Author interview, Auswärtiges Amt, Berlin, 11 January 2011.

4 Author interview, German Permanent Representation to the EU, Brussels, 10 November 2010.

5 For an extended discussion of German efforts at leadership in the context of the CFSP see Wright (forthcoming).

6 Author interview, Auswärtiges Amt, Berlin, 11 January 2011.

7 Author interviews, German Permanent Representation to the EU, Brussels, 10 November 2010 and Auswärtiges Amt, Berlin, 12 January 2011.

8 Author interview, Auswärtiges Amt, Berlin, 12 January 2011.

9 Author interview, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London, 13 January 2012.

10 Author interview, Auswärtiges Amt, Berlin, 11 January 2011.

11 Author interview, Auswärtiges Amt, Berlin, 11 January 2011.

12 Author interview, Auswärtiges Amt, Berlin, 12 January 2011.

13 Author interview, Auswärtiges Amt, Berlin, 12 January 2011.

14 Author interviews, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London, 13 January 2012; French Permanent Representation to the EU, Brussels, 9 November 2010; Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Paris, 1 February 2011.

15 Telephone interview with author, Swedish Permanent Representation to the EU, Brussels, 22 May 2012.

16 Author interview, German Permanent Representation to the EU, Brussels, 10 November 2010.

17 Author interviews, Auswärtiges Amt, Berlin, 11 January 2011. and German Permanent Representation to the EU, Brussels, 10 November 2010.

18 Author interview, Auswärtiges Amt, Berlin, 11 January 2011.

19 Author interview, Auswärtiges Amt, Berlin, 3 April 2012.

20 Author interview, Auswärtiges Amt, Berlin, 11 January 2011.

21 Author interview, German Permanent Representation, Brussels, 10 November 2010.

22 Author interview, Auswärtiges Amt, Berlin, 11 January 2011.

23 Author interview, Auswärtiges Amt, Berlin, 11 January 2011.

24 Author interview, Auswärtiges Amt, Berlin, 11 January 2011.

25 Author interview, EEAS, Brussels, 18 April 2012.

26 Author interview, German Permanent Representation, Brussels, 10 February 2017.

27 Author interview, German Permanent Representation, Brussels, 10 February 2017.

28 Author interview, German Permanent Representation, Brussels, 10 February 2017.

29 Author interview, General Secretariat of the Council of the EU Brussels, 28 July 2016.

30 Author interview, German Permanent Representation, Brussels, 10 February 2017.

31 Author interview, German Permanent Representation, Brussels, 10 February 2017.

Additional information

Funding

This paper is an output of the project ‘Germany’s Eastern Challenge: A “Hybrid Ostpolitik” in the Making?’ of the Institute of International Relations Prague and it was supported from the institutional funding provided by the Government of the Czech Republic.