Disregarding the Voters? Electoral Competition and the Merkel Government’s Public Policies, 2013–17

Abstract

How did electoral competition during the second grand coalition under Chancellor Angela Merkel affect policy-making? By examining opinion polls and the outcomes of Länder elections, the article shows that on the demand side party competition was (potentially) intense. On the supply side, it discusses the major opposition parties’ policy positions and reviews whether the voters regarded them as credible and competent. Then it assesses the effects of this actor constellation for the two most salient policy areas, the euro crisis and the refugee crisis. It finds that the grand coalition partially revoked its initially liberal migration policy as the AfD gained strength and became a credible alternative for CDU/CSU (as well as SPD) voters. In contrast, euro rescue policy was largely unaffected by party competition because the issue was less salient and the CDU/CSU was regarded as the most credible party in this respect.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Fabian Engler is a PhD student and research associate at the Institute of Political Science, Heidelberg University, Germany. His research interests include comparative political economy, public policy analysis, and political parties. He has published in journals such as the British Journal of Political Science, Policy Studies Journal, and Parliamentary Affairs.

Svenja Bauer-Blaschkowski is a graduate student at the Institute of Political Science, Heidelberg University, Germany. Her research interests include German politics, political parties, morality policies, and asylum policies.

Reimut Zohlnhöfer is Professor of Political Science at Heidelberg University, Germany. His research interests include German politics, political economy, comparative public policy, and policy process theory. He has published in journals such as the British Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, European Journal of Political Research, Policy Studies Journal, Political Behavior, Socio-Economic Review, and West European Politics.

Notes

1 For more detailed information on voter transitions, consult the election reports of Infratest dimap.

2 For migration policy, see e.g. Infratest dimap (2015a, 2016c, 2016d, 2017).

3 According to opinion polls, 49 per cent opposed the third rescue package for Greece while 46 per cent were in favour of it (Infratest dimap 2015c).

4 Infratest dimap’s Deutschland TREND does not report respondents’ satisfaction with migration policy after April 2016.

5 We coded the number of parliamentary questions, minor and major interpellations, bills, government information, motions, resolution proposals, recommended resolutions, plenary protocols, reports, amendments, and regulations.