Updating higher education expectations and choices with learning

ABSTRACT

This paper explores how expectations and post-secondary education (PSE) path disruption decisions are affected by a learning process that students experience once enrolled in a PSE program. An unexpected change in grades, between high school and first year PSE program, serves as an informative signal on how well their academic performance and preferences align with the academic requirements and difficulty of the program that they enrolled. I find that learning about the fit affects students' immediate PSE decisions about dropping out, switching program of study and their expectations about the current educational level. The effects are heterogeneous by parental education.

KEYWORDS:

• Post secondary education
• major switch
• dropout
• expectations

JEL Classification:

• C21
• I21

Acknowledgements

While the research and analysis are based on data from Statistics Canada, the opinions expressed do not represent the views of Statistics Canada. I thank two anonymous referees and the editors for constructive feedback. I also thank Thanasis Stengos, Michael Hoy, and the session participants at the 2013 CEA Annual Meetings and 2014 EEA Annual Congress.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. Differently from the United States, in Canada college and university refer to different academic entities. In Canada, colleges offer vocational trades programs and Bachelor's equivalent degrees in arts and sciences focused on practical instruction. College professors in Canada focus on teaching and have extensive experience in the private sector. Meanwhile, universities offer Bachelor's degrees with research opportunities leading to graduate studies.

2. Completion rates in the U.S. are 56% (Symonds, Schwartz, and Ferguson 2011), and in Canada are almost 75% (authors calculations using Youth in Transition Survey – Cohort A that follows individuals till the age of 23 years old).

3. The outcomes investigated to date are expected earnings (Dominitz 1998), expected returns to schooling (Dominitz and Manski 1996) and the choice of contraception method (Delavande 2008).

4. Expected behavior and probabilistic expectations differ in the following way: In order to elicit probabilistic expectations the question starts by ‘What do you think is the percent chance that you …?’. To elicit expected behavior the question starts by ‘Do you expect to..(tick one of the increasing categories that applies)…?’.

5. Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) reading test score.

6. The following classification is used to separate majors into similar fields of study groups: (1) Education, (2) Fine and applied arts, (3) Humanities and related fields, (4) Social Sciences and Law, (5) Business and Public Administration, (6) Math and Physics Sciences, (7) Engineering and Applied Sciences, (8) Engineering and Applied Sciences: technologies and trades, (9) Agriculture and biological sciences/technologies, (10) Health professions, sciences and technologies.

7. In order to avoid the effect of any potential outliers within each cell, in another set of results not shown in the paper, I re-build the proxy variables using the median rather than the mean of the GPA's of the older cohort individuals. The empirical results were robust to this change. They are available from the author upon request.

8. CEGEP is the french acronym for Collège d'Enseignement Général Et Professionnel. It is a one-year, pre-university program specific to the province of Quebec which is mandatory for any high school graduate that plans to enrol in a PSE program in a Quebec university or college. The credits of this program are usually counted towards the first-year undergraduate program. CEGEP is not a requirement for Quebec high school students to attend PSE studies in institutions elsewhere in Canada. Under this system, high school students in Quebec complete 11 years of secondary education instead of 12 in the rest of Canada.

9. The major field of study classification used in the match is organized in the following 10 groups based on the YITS original classification: (1) Education, (2) Visual and Performing Arts, and Communications Technologies, (3) Humanities, (4) Social and Behavioral Sciences, and Law, (5) Business, Management and Public Administration, (6) Physical and Life Sciences, and Technologies, (7) Mathematics, Computer and Information Sciences, (8) Architecture, Engineering and Related Technologies, (9) Agriculture, Natural Resources and Conservation, (10) Other that includes ‘Personal Improvement and Leisure’, ‘Health, Parks, Recreation and Fitness’ and ‘Personal, Protective and Transportation Services’.

10. In comparison to students that enrol in a PSE program, those that never enrol have very low expectations since age 17. About one quarter (27.23%) of this group report that they expect their highest level of educational attainment to be lower than a College diploma, compared to 4.55% in Table 2; 40.97% report a College Diploma, compared to 19.49% in Table 2; and 31.80% report a university degree (Bachelor's or graduate), compared to 75.97% in Table 2.

11. Indicator variables for each of the provinces: Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador. The omitted category is Ontario.

12. The survey asks to answer by yes or no to: ‘During or before your first year, did you take part in any workshops, programs or courses designed to help you adjust to first-year studies?’.

13. The survey asks students to answer the question by picking one of multiple choice answers (Zero, Less than one hour per week, 1–3, 4–7, 8–14, 15–20, 21–30 and More than 30 h per week) to the question: ‘During your first year, about how many hours each week did you spend studying or doing assigned work outside of class?’

14. The survey asks students to answer the question by picking one of multiple choice answers to the question: ‘How many times per month did you think about dropping out. Was it …?’ Never, Less than once a month, Once or twice a month, About once a week, More than once a week.

15. The survey question is: ‘During my first year, I felt I had found the right program for me’.

16. The survey question is: ‘During my first year, helped me get a better idea of my future plans’.

17. The survey question is: ‘My first year, gave me skills that help me in the job market’.

18. The survey question is: ‘During my first year, I was sure of the type of work I would like to have in the future’.