Securing the South Caucasus: Military Aspects of Russian Policy towards the Region since 2008

Abstract

In the wake of the 2008 conflict with Georgia, Russia has re-established itself as the dominant actor in the South Caucasus, consolidating its military presence in the region and reinforcing its already substantial diplomatic and economic levers. This essay examines recent Russian policy towards the region as Moscow attempts to counterbalance growing Western involvement within what it perceives to be its zone of ‘privileged interest’, focusing on military aspects of its policy towards Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and the implications for security across the South Caucasus.

Notes

¹The author recognises the problematic nature of referring to Abkhazia and South Ossetia as ‘separatist regions’. Russia refers to the two as ‘independent states’, whilst Georgia calls them its ‘occupied territories’, both emotive terms. However, as the majority of the international community has not recognised the sovereignty of either Abkhazia or South Ossetia and continues to recognise Georgia's territorial integrity, the term ‘separatist region’ will be used throughout this essay.

²The Gabala radar station is strategically important for Russia as it has the capacity to detect missile launches in the Indian Ocean and can also survey the whole of the Middle East. A 2002 agreement between Moscow and Baku acknowledged that the station belonged to Azerbaijan, but granted Russia a 10-year lease.

³In 1999 former Russian President Boris Yel'tsin agreed to an OSCE-facilitated deal, which obligated Russia to hand back its four bases in Georgia before 1 July 2001. Only two bases were returned within this deadline: Gudauta in Abkhazia and the air base at Vaziani, near Tbilisi. A new framework was drawn up in 2006, according to which the remaining two bases at Akhalkalaki and Batumi were to be completely vacated by the end of 2008. Moscow completed its withdrawal ahead of schedule, in November 2007. Furthermore, in addition to its military bases, until the conflict of August 2008 there were two further groups of Russian military forces on Georgian territory, operating under the aegis of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) peacekeeping operations in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The presence of thousands of Russian peace-keepers, who were considered neither impartial nor neutral, exacerbated relations between Tbilisi, Moscow and the regional leaders. Saakashvili has described the Russian peacekeepers as ‘piece-keepers’ who, in his opinion, were there ‘to keep the pieces of the old empire and not the actual peace’ (‘Russian Threats Alarm Georgia’, BBC News, 14 September 2004, available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk, accessed 30 March 2006).

⁴In May 2008, 400 Russian Ministry of Defence Railway troops moved into Abkhazia without Georgian permission. At the same time, a battalion of nearly 500 soldiers of the mechanised brigade based in Maikop was redeployed to Abkhazia. ‘Polish think-tank sees possible “local war” in Georgia's rebel region in autumn’ Text of Report in English by Warsaw Eastern Studies Centre 4 June, BBC Monitoring Online, 4 June 2008, available at: http://my.monitor.bbc.co.uk, accessed 23 May 2009.

⁵This was to be expected. In July 2004, the Russian authorities had warned that Moscow ‘will not remain indifferent towards the fate of its citizens, which comprise the absolute majority of South Ossetia’, a stance affirmed in 2005 by Andrei Kokoshin, head of the Duma committee on CIS affairs, who said that Russia ‘will not stay aloof’ if Georgia resorts to force, stating that: ‘Many residents of South Ossetia are citizens of Russia and Russia has the right to defend the life, freedom, property and health of its citizens using all means available to a state in modern circumstances’. Statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, ‘V svyazi s obostreniem situatsii vokrug Yuzhnoi Osetii’, 9 July 2004, available at: www.ln.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/sps/3C8799FB6DC16167C3256ECC0045352E, accessed 14 July 2011. Again, in September 2007, there was a similar warning that ‘in the case of aggravation of the situation around South Ossetia Russia will take all the necessary steps determined by its peacekeeping and mediation mission and by its responsibility for the security of Russian citizens’. Statement by Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs: ‘On the Situation in the Georgian–Ossetian Zone of Conflict’, 14 September 2007, available at: www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/e78a48070f128a7b43256999005bcbb3/fd30396df64db2c9c3257356005ad343?OpenDocument, accessed 6 June 2009.

⁶ Izvestiya, 11 March 2011, available at: http://www.izvestia.ru/news/372280, accessed 16 June 2011.

⁷Rossiya 24 news channel, Moscow, 09:00 GMT, 18 May 2011, BBC Monitoring, available at: http://my.monitor.bbc.co.uk, accessed 10 June 2011.

⁹ Argumenty nedeli, 11, 201, 25 March 2010, available at: http://www.argumenti.ru/army/2010/03/54434/, accessed 23 May 2010.

⁸Each base has a military camp in Russia, which enables the number of personnel to be varied according to requirement: at the beginning of 2010, there were only 1,500 troops at the 7th Base (Itar-Tass news agency, Moscow, 10:36 GMT, 25 February 2010, BBC Monitoring, available at: http://my.monitor.bbc.co.uk, accessed 19 October 2010).

¹⁰ Komsomolskaya Pravda, 19 February 2010, available at: http://www.kp.ru/daily/24444/609760/, accessed 20 January 2011.

¹¹ Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 14 March 2010, available at: http://www.ng.ru/cis/2010-03-17/1_military.html, accessed 21 May 2010.

¹²‘Zashchishchat’ 49 let’, Vedomosti, 19 May 2009, available at: http://www.vedomosti.ru/newspaper/article.shtml?2009/05/19/196146, accessed 3 June 2009.

¹³Major General Vladimir Vasilchenko previously held the post of deputy chief of staff of the Siberian military district.

¹⁵ Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 18 February 2010, available at: http://www.ng.ru/nvo/2010-02-18/1_abhazia.html, accessed 18 May 2010.

¹⁴ ‘Russia: Post-reform situation in North Caucasus Military District criticized’, Text of report by Russia's Volgograd Region weekly sociopolitical newspaper Volgogradskaya Tribuna, Volgograd, BBC Monitoring, 19 February 2010, available at: http://my.monitor.bbc.co.uk, accessed 18 July 2011.

¹⁶ Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 18 February 2010, available at: http://www.ng.ru/nvo/2010-02-18/1_abhazia.html, accessed 18 May 2010.

¹⁷‘Russian parliament ratifies border guard agreements with South Ossetia, Abkhazia’, Excerpt from report by Russian news agency Interfax, Moscow, 10:30 GMT, BBC Monitoring, 26 March 2010, available at: http://my.monitor.bbc.co.uk, accessed 18 July 2011.

¹⁸‘Russia to double number of coastguard ships in Georgian breakaway region’, Excerpt from report by Russian military news agency Interfax-AVN website, Moscow, 14:26 GMT, 28 April 2010, BBC Monitoring, available at: http://my.monitor.bbc.co.uk, accessed 18 July 2011.

²¹ Kommersant'', 18 February 2010, available at: http://www.kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?DocsID=1324162, accessed 23 May 2010.

¹⁹‘Kremlin “walking tightrope” with Abkhazia, South Ossetia–Russian website’, Text of report by Russian Gazeta.ru news website, 26 August 2009, BBC Monitoring, available at: http://my.monitor.bbc.co.uk, accessed 24 May 2010.

²⁰Following his election to power at the beginning of 2005, the Abkhazian leader Sergei Bagapsh stated that integration with Russia was a priority for his government. He described Abkhazia as being tied to Russia ‘by an umbilical cord’ and said his administration would do ‘everything we can to make the laws and the acts of legislation of the republic of Abkhazia dovetail with those of the Russian Federation’ (‘Favourite in Abkhazia presidential election aiming to join Russian Federation’, Excerpt from report by Russian external TV service NTV Mir, Moscow, 10:00 GMT, BBC Monitoring, 11 January 2005, available at: http://my.monitor.bbc.co.uk, accessed 6 March 2009).

²² Komsomolskaya Pravda, 8 April 2010, available at: http://www.kp.ru/daily/24470.4/629636/, accessed 21 January 2011.

²³‘Russian president praises cooperation with Georgia's breakaway Abkhazia’, Rossiya 24 news channel, Moscow, in Russian 10:52 GMT, BBC Monitoring, 17 February 2010, available at: http://my.monitor.bbc.co.uk, accessed 23 July 2012.

²⁴Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Press and Information Department, 1 February 2010. The Russian position is at odds with its stance over Chechnya, a self-proclaimed ‘independent’ republic that has been seeking independence from the Russian Federation, and Moscow's anger at other states which have engaged with Chechen separatists.

²⁵The majority of the populations of the two regions hold Russian passports.

²⁶South Ossetia's status as a de facto independent republic enabled it to exploit the lack of official borders between Russia and Georgia (i.e. between North and South Ossetia), facilitating a prolific smuggling operation predominantly of alcohol and fuel. For further details of the alleged contraband that travelled between North and South Ossetia, see Novyie Izvestiya (1 July 2004, pp. 1–4). For a detailed analysis of the economic impact of these unresolved conflicts, particularly the problem of smuggling and criminal activities, see Gotsiridze (2004).

²⁷ Kommersant’’, 7 April 2010, available at: http://www.kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?DocsID=1350011, accessed 19 May 2010.

²⁸‘Russia needs no “eyewitnesses” in rebel regions—Georgian foreign minister’, Channel 1 TV, Tbilisi, 12:00 GMT, BBC Monitoring, 19 May 2009, available at: http://my.monitor.bbc.co.uk, accessed 12 June 2009.

²⁹‘Russia sees no point in international presence in Georgia's breakaway regions’, Text of report by Russian news agency Interfax, Moscow, 17:51 GMT, BBC Monitoring, 7 June 2011, available at: http://my.monitor.bbc.co.uk, accessed 23 July 2011.

³⁰ Komsomolskaya Pravda, 19 February 2010, available at: http://www.kp.ru/daily/24444/609760/, accessed 20 January 2011.

³⁴ Krasnaya Zvezda, 19 August 2010, available at: www.kz.ru, accessed 20 August 2010.

³¹‘Joint news conference following Russian-Armenian talks’, 20 August 2010, 13:30, Yerevan, Official site of the President of Russia, available at: http://eng.news.kremlin.ru/transcripts/810/print, accessed 8 June 2011.

³²‘Russia installs air defence command centre in Armenia’, Text of report in English by private Armenian news agency Mediamax, Yerevan, 12:57 GMT, 20 December 2010, available at: http://my.monitor.bbc.co.uk, accessed 15 March 2011.

³³ Krasnaya Zvezda, 19 August 2010, available at: www.kz.ru, accessed 20 August 2010.

³⁵‘Russian coast guard preparing for Sochi Olympics and Abkhazia coastal duty’, Text of report by the website of Russian newspaper Gazeta, Moscow, BBC Monitoring, 16 September 2009, available at: http://my.monitor.bbc.co.uk, accessed 7 June 2010.

³⁶ Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obozreniye, 11 April 2011, available at: http://www.ng.ru/nvo/2011-04-11/1_abhazia.html, accessed 12 June 2011.

³⁷ Izvestiya, 31 March 2008, available at: http://www.izvestia.ru/person/article3114615/, accessed 10 October 2009.

³⁸‘NATO provoked Georgian use of force in separatist region—Russian diplomat’, Text of report by Russian news agency Interfax, Moscow, 10:38 GMT, BBC Monitoring, 14 February 2011, available at: http://my.monitor.bbc.co.uk, accessed 22 July 2011.

³⁹There is very little domestic opposition to Georgia's Western alignment and referendums on the issue of NATO membership demonstrate consistently high levels of support for accession, even amongst opposition groups. A plebiscite on NATO membership held in early 2008 showed 77% in favour of seeking membership. Fried (2006) believes that there is a ‘strong national consensus’ for Georgia's Western and Euro-Atlantic direction, even amongst opposition groups.

⁴⁰‘Georgian leader's policy halted NATO's eastward expansion—Russian envoy’, Vesti TV news channel, Moscow, 07:36 GMT, BBC Monitoring, 6 August 2009, available at: http://my.monitor.bbc.co.uk, accessed 10 June 2010.

⁴¹‘Active Engagement, Modern Defence: Strategic Concept for the Defence and Security of The Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, adopted by Heads of State and Government in Lisbon', 19 November 2010, p. 8, available at: http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_68580.htm, accessed 8 June 2011.