Russia’s Power Projection after the Ukraine Crisis

Abstract

This essay discusses how Russia’s power manifested itself in relation to Western policies in its neighbourhood. It focuses on how Russia understands power, the way this understanding impacts the ideational and cultural influence that it projects, and how Moscow has applied a range of tools in Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus. It argues that Russia’s power projection cannot be understood without reference to its interactions with the West. The 2014 crisis in Ukraine brought greater consistency to Moscow’s approach, which has become more strategic, mixing different elements in pursuit of foreign policy objectives. Still, Moscow remains an anti-revisionist power beyond the Ukrainian case and continues to act as a status quo power in Europe where it has been adapting its strategies to a climate of hostile international relations. Russian soft power is a significant asset that needs to be recognised as a phenomenon in its own right and more clearly distinguished from the direct pursuit of state interests.

Notes

¹ Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, frequently speaks about ‘Russian influence in international affairs’. In his speech at the conference, Global’naya politika i ee povestka: kak zashchitit’ mir, Lavrov stated that Russia’s influence in the international arena has grown (‘Lavrov zayavil o vozrosshem vliyanii Rossii na mezhdunarodoi arene’, Parlamentskaya Gazeta, 16 October 2017, available at: https://www.pnp.ru/politics/lavrov-zayavil-o-vozrosshem-vliyanii-rossii-na-mezhdunarodnoy-arene.html, accessed 28 April 2018).

² ‘Is Putin Motivated by Russia’s Weakness?’, BBC News, 14 October 2015, available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34520670, accessed 19 February 2018.

³ This impression has been consistently confirmed by the Levada Centre public opinion polls, see, for example, a June 2017 poll, in which only 19% of respondents thought that Russia should make concessions to the West in order to reach compromise: ‘Sanktsii bez posledstvii’ Sanctions without Consequences, Levada Centre, 15 June 2017, available at: https://www.levada.ru/2017/06/15/sanktsii-bez-posledstvij/, accessed 7 May 2018. Also author’s interviews with Professor Valerii Solovei, MGIMO, Moscow, February and May 2016, and May 2017.

⁴ See also Monaghan (2017).

⁵ ‘The World’s Most Powerful People’, Forbes, 2016, available at: https://www.forbes.com/powerful-people/list/#tab:overall, accessed 19 February 2018.

⁶ Interviews with Professor Valerii Solovei, MGIMO, Moscow, February and May 2016, and May 2017.

⁷ ‘Turkey’s Downing of Russian Warplane; What We Know’, BBC News, 1 December 2015, available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34912581, accessed 20 December 2017.

⁸ Author’s interview with Vladimir Pryakhin, former Russian diplomat, Moscow, 16 February 2016.

⁹ ‘Economy “in Tatters?” Russian PM Invites Obama to do Fact Check for Himself’, RT, 28 September 2018, available at: https://www.rt.com/business/425421-medvedev-obama-economy-tatters, accessed 2 May 2018. On economic performance see also ‘Russia’s Recovery: How Strong are its Shoots?’, 38th Russia Economic Report, World Bank Group, November 2017, available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/28930/30-11-2017-17-58-52-forwebNovFINALRERENGfull.pdf?sequence=7, accessed 2 May 2018. Richard Connolly wrote that ‘measured at purchasing power parity, Russia’s GDP was, despite the recession, $3.4 trillion in 2015, making Russia the 6th largest economy in the world. Measured at PPP, per capita income is nearly $25,000, 44% of the US level and 65% of the EU average’ (Connolly 2017, p. 21).

¹⁰ Author’s interview with Sergei Markedonov, Moscow, May 2016.

¹¹ For examination of common claims see Saradzhyan (2016).

¹² For a critique of these views see Monaghan (2016a).

¹³ See, for example, Wolf (2014).

¹⁴ Author’s interview with Sergei Markedonov, Moscow, May 2016. See, for example, statements by the ex-president of Georgia and former governor of Odesa Mikhail Saakashvili (Dzikavitski 2017).

¹⁵ For a critique of this see Monaghan (2016a).

¹⁶ Research shows that all Soviet successor states, except for Russia and Kazakhstan, are remittance-dependent, and Ukraine and Moldova continue to be intensely dependent on labour-migrant income (Böröcz 2014).

¹⁷ According to the World Bank, in 2016 Moldova’s GDP reached 6.75 billion, GNI per capita was US$2,120, and poverty headcount constituted 9.6% (‘Moldova Data’, World Bank, available at: https://data.worldbank.org/country/moldova, accessed 3 May 2018). Moldova was ranked 107th in UNDP Human Development Report 2016, (‘Moldova: Human Development Indicators’, UNDP, available at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/MDA, accessed 3 May 2018).

¹⁸ GDP in Belarus in 2016 was US$47.4 billion, GNI per capita US$5,600 and poverty headcount was 5.7% (‘Belarus Data’, The World Bank, available at: https://data.worldbank.org/country/belarus, accessed 3 May 2018). Belarus was ranked 52nd in UNDP Human Development Report 2016 (‘Belarus: Human Development Indicators’, UNDP, available at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/BLR, accessed 3 May 2018), ahead of some EU member states such as Bulgaria (UNDP 2016).

¹⁹ Survey data show consistently high levels of dissatisfaction with institutions, high perceptions of corruption and a rising belief that the country is moving in the wrong direction; see ‘Fourth Annual Ukrainian Municipal Survey, January–February 2018’, Center for Insights in Survey Research, 2018, available at: http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2018-3-22_ukraine_poll.pdf, accessed 3 May 2018. On IMF statement see Verbyany (2017).

²⁰ This point has been repeatedly made by Vladimir Putin; see, for example, his speech at the reception on the occasion of National Unity Day: ‘Preservation of Diversity of Peoples of Russia, their Ethnic and Cultural Distinctiveness Bears Key Significance for Us’, President of Russia, 4 November 2017, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56002, accessed 3 May 2018.

²¹ ‘Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation (approved by President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin on November, 30 2016)’, The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, 1 December 2016, available at: http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/official_documents/-/asset_publisher/CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/2542248, accessed 3 May 2018.

²² This is apparently a widespread belief: on the Catalan independence referendum, see Alandete (2017); ‘Catalonia Held a Referendum. Russia Won’, The Washington Post, 2 October 2017, available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/catalonia-held-a-referendum-russia-won/2017/10/02/f618cd7c-a798-11e7-92d1-58c702d2d975_story.html?utm_term=.59abafaaf790, accessed 3 May 2018.

²³ The concept developed by Ofer Fridman (2017) in his critique of ‘hybrid warfare’.

²⁴ ‘The EU as a Regional Power: The Eastern Neighbourhood’, Chatham House workshop, 2 December 2015, available at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/event/eu-regional-power-eastern-neighbourhood, accessed 9 May 2018.

²⁵ Author’s interviews with Prof. Valerii Solovei and Alexei Chesnakov, Centre for Current Politics, Moscow, February 2016.

²⁶ Also, author’s interviews with Russian journalists, Vladimir Dergachoff and Alexander Chalenko, Moscow, February and May 2016.

²⁷ Author’s interview with Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of CIS (Diaspora & Integration) Institute, Moscow, February 2016.

²⁸ ‘Why has Russia Banned Moldovan Wine?’, The Economist, 25 November 2013, available at: https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/11/economist-explains-18, accessed 2 May 2018.

²⁹ ‘Year’s Balance: Thorny Road to Bright Economic Future’, UNIAN, 30 December 2017, available at: https://economics.unian.info/2325981-weeks-balance-thorny-road-to-bright-economic-future.html, accessed 19 February 2018.

³⁰ ‘Success for Russia in US$3 billion Debt Claim Against Ukraine’, Shepherd and Wedderburn LLP, 24 April 2017, available at: https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=4b8040b6-0e05-4f9f-926c-1016e31fde08, accessed 19 February 2018.

³¹ ‘Both Ukraine and Russia Claim Victory in Gas Dispute’, Reuters, 22 December 2017, available at: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-crisis-russia-gazprom/both-ukraine-and-russia-claim-victory-in-gas-dispute-idUKKBN1EG18P, accessed 19 February 2018; ‘Rossiya–Ukraina: gazovaya nich’ya’, gazeta.ru, 22 December 2017, available at: https://www.gazeta.ru/business/2017/12/22/11516258.shtml, accessed 20 February 2018.

³² ‘All Russian Trains to Bypass Ukraine Starting Dec 11’, UNIAN, 11 December 2017, available at: https://economics.unian.info/2290424-all-russian-trains-to-bypass-ukraine-starting-dec-11.html, accessed 2 May 2018.

³³ Author’s interviews in Moscow with well-established political analysts and observers, including Alexei Chesnakov, Vladimir Zharikhin, Valerii Solovei, Alexander Chalenko and others, February and May 2016, May and September 2017.

³⁴ ‘Novyi zakon i pravila v”ezda grazhdan Ukrainy v Rossiyu’, VisaSam.ru, available at: http://visasam.ru/russia/vezd/pravila-viezda-v-rossiyu-grazhdanam-ukrainy.html, accessed 7 May 2018.

³⁵ Author’s field research in Belarus, Minsk and Homel, May 2014.

³⁶ On discussion of language and identity see Ioffe (2014).

³⁷ Interviews conducted in the course of field research in Belarus, May 2014.

³⁸ ‘Psikhologicheski Belarus’ uyazvima, s nizkoi sposobnost’yu zashchishchat’sya’, Nasha Niva, 23 May 2014, available at: http://nn.by/?c=ar&i=128373&lang=ru, accessed 7 May 2018.

³⁹ There are numerous media publications to this effect; see, for example, Baranchik (2017).

⁴⁰ Some 138 individuals were identified, see ‘Figurantami ugolovnykh del o naemnichestve prokhodyat 138 chelovek―KGB Belarusi’, Interfax Belarus, 23 June 2016, available at: http://www.interfax.by/news/belarus/1208254, accessed 7 May 2018.

⁴¹ Author’s interview with an activist who fought against Berkut at Euromaidan, Homel, May 2014. Well-publicised cases were of Ales’ Cherkashin and Mikhail Zhiznevsky.

⁴² ‘Rossiiskie politologi: Rossiya mozhet poteryat’ Belarus’’, Belarusskii Partizan, 30 November 2014, available at: https://belaruspartisan.by/politic/287623, accessed 7 May 2018.

⁴³ ‘“Georgievskie” lenty v Belarusi―zapreshchennaya simvolika?’, Belarusskii Partizan, 6 May 2014, available at: https://belaruspartisan.by/life/266073/, accessed 2 May 2018.

⁴⁴ ‘Vi Minske zapretili shestvie “Bessmertnyi polk”’, Belorusskii Partizan, 7 May 2018, available at: https://belaruspartisan.by/politic/342757/, accessed 7 May 2018.

⁴⁵ Author’s personal experience in May 2014 in Minsk.

⁴⁶ ‘The Most Important Results of the Public Opinion Poll in March 2016’, Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies, Minsk, 29 March 2016, available at: http://www.iiseps.org/?pp=3960, accessed 7 May 2018. Other polls give higher figures.

⁴⁷ ‘Mezhdunarodnaya konferentsiya “Rusofobiya i informatsionnaya voina protiv Rossii”’, Public Diplomacy Foundation for Development of Institutions of Civil Society, Moscow, 4 October 2015, available at: http://www.publicdiplomacy.su/2015/10/04/rusofobiya-i-informatsionnaya-voyna-protiv-rossii/, accessed 7 May 2018.

⁴⁸ ‘International Conference “BelaRussian Dialogue”’, HSE Alumni, 26 January 2016, available at: https://alumni.hse.ru/en/announcements/172126188.html, accessed 4 May 2018.

⁴⁹ ‘U Bilorusi zatrimali dvoikh prorosiis’kikh aktivistiv’, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, 9 December 2016, available at: https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news/28165880.html, accessed 7 May 2018.

⁵⁰ ‘Belarus President Attends Poroshenko Inauguration, says Ukraine Should Remain United’, Minsk Capital TV, 7 June 2014, available at: http://www.ctv.by/en/belarus-president-lukashenko-attends-poroshenko-inauguration-ceremony-says-ukraine-should-remain, accessed 7 May 2018.

⁵¹ ‘Belarus i Kazakhstan zablokirovali povyshenie poshlin dlya Ukrainy’, Belarusskii Partizan, 30 June 2014, available at: https://belaruspartisan.by/m/economic/271762/, accessed 6 May 2018.

⁵² ‘Belarus Introduces Five-day Visa-free Regime for Citizens of 80 States’, President of the Republic of Belarus, 9 January 2017, available at: http://president.gov.by/en/news_en/view/belarus-introduces-five-day-visa-free-regime-for-citizens-of-80-states-15344/, accessed 4 May 2018.

⁵³ ‘Putin Tells Gazprom to Revisit Yamal–Europe-2 Pipeline Project’, RIA Novosti, 4 April 2013, available at: http://en.ria.ru/business/20130404/180432128/Putin-Tells-Gazprom-to-Revisit-Yamal-Europe-2-Pipeline-Project.html, accessed 19 February 2018.

⁵⁴ ‘Voennaya doktrina Respubliki Belarus Zakon Respubliki Belarus 20 iyulya 2016 № 412-З Ob utverzhdenii Voennoi doktriny Respubliki Belarus’, Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Belarus, available at: http://www.mil.by/ru/military_policy/doktrina, accessed 4 May 2018.

⁵⁵ ‘US Relations with Belarus’, Fact Sheet, Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, US Department of State, 12 April 2018, available at: https://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5371.htm, accessed 4 May 2018.

⁵⁶ ‘Lukashenko: Belarus Develops Dialogue with West without Compromising Relations with East’, BelTA, 12 September 2016, available at: http://eng.belta.by/video/getRecord/9/, accessed 4 May 2018.

⁵⁷ ‘Moldova: Regional Tensions over Transdniestria’, International Crisis Group, Europe Report Nº157, 17 June 2004, available at: https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/eastern-europe/moldova/moldova-regional-tensions-over-transdniestria, accessed 19 February 2018.

⁵⁸ ‘Putin Leads in Moldova Poll’, RIA Novosti, 5 May 2016, available at: https://meduza.io/en/news/2016/05/05/putin-leads-in-moldova-poll, accessed 19 February 2018. Also see, Insitutul de Politici Publice, Barometrul de Opinie Publicã, April 2016, available at: http://ipp.md/old/public/files/Barometru/BOP_04.2016_prima_parte_finale-r.pdf, accessed 17 May 2018.

⁵⁹ ‘Public Opinion Survey. Residents of Moldova’, Centre for Insights in Survey Research, March 2016, available at: http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/wysiwyg/iri_poll_presentation-moldova-march_2016.pdf, accessed 19 February 2018.

⁶⁰ ‘Annual Survey Report 2016: Regional Overview—Eastern Partnership Countries’, Ecorys, July, available at: http://www.euneighbours.eu/sites/default/files/publications/2017-02/EU%20Neighbours%20East_Full.report_6.pdf, accessed 10 May 2018; see also Dimitrova et al. (2017, p 25).

⁶¹ According to AGB Nielsen Media Research cited in ‘V Moldavii sporyat o prekrashchenii pokaza novostei rossiiskikh telekanalov’, Deutche Welle, 10 April 2015, available at: http://www.dw.com/ru/%D0%B2-%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B8-%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%8F%D1%82-%D0%BE-%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%89%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B8-%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B0-%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%B9-%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B9%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8%D1%85-%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2/a-18373628, accessed 7 May 2018.

⁶² ‘Bans on Entry in Russia to be Withdrawn for Moldovan Citizens’, Molpres, 1 March 2017, available at: https://www.moldpres.md/en/news/2017/03/01/17001648, accessed 19 February 2018.

⁶³ ‘Igor Dodon Summed Up the First 100 days as Moldovan President’, Accent TV, 28 March 2017, http://a-tv.md/eng/index.php?newsid=28486, accessed 4 May 2018.

⁶⁴ ‘LGBT-soobshchestvo podderzhivaet Maiiyu Sandu’, AVA.MD Information and analytical portal, 21 October 2016, available at: https://ava.md/2016/10/21/lgbt-soobschestvo-podderzhivaet-mayyu/, accessed 7 May 2018.

⁶⁵ Author’s field research in the region, September 2015.

⁶⁶ See, for example, the November 2017 public opinion poll, according to which in the case that a referendum on unification with Romania would have been conducted next Sunday, 62.8% respondents would have voted against it and 22.2% would have voted in favour. Some 54% of respondents believed that Moldova should pursue a line towards rapprochement with Russia and 45% thought that Moldova should join the Eurasian Economic Union. Poll conducted by sociological research company ‘Public Opinion Foundation’ commissioned by Timpul newspaper, reported by Teleradio Moldova, by Ecaterina Naconecinîi, 6 November 2017, available at: http://trm.md/ru/social/sondaj-majoritatea-cetatenilor-republicii-moldova-sussin-limba-moldoveneasca, accessed 4 May 2018.

⁶⁷ ‘Scuffles Mar Moldovan Unification March in Romanian Capital’, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, 22 October 2016, available at: https://www.rferl.org/a/scuffles-mar-moldovan-unification-march-in-bucharest/28069402.html, accessed 4 May 2018.

⁶⁸ Author’s field research in Transnistria, September 2015.

⁶⁹ Author’s field research in Transnistria, September 2015.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Anna Matveeva

Anna Matveeva, War Studies Department, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS, UK. Email: [email protected]