Great Expectations or Misplaced Hopes? The Role of the Visegrád Group in the Brexit Process

Abstract

The article explores the role played by the Visegrád Group—a multilateral platform of four Central and Eastern European states (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia)—in the Brexit process. It surveys the group's performance during two distinct phases of the Brexit process: first, David Cameron's EU renegotiations and, second, the first phase of the Article 50 (withdrawal) negotiations, ending in December 2017. The author concludes that while the group managed to maximise its clout in the case of EU renegotiations, it has been much less effective during the withdrawal negotiations in the period under study.

Notes

1 The Brexit process is understood here as the process of withdrawal of the UK from the EU which covers several distinctive phases such as David Cameron's EU renegotiations, the in/out referendum and the Article 50 negotiations.

2 For more on this, see, for instance Lukášek (2010), Dangerfield (2012, 2014), Krno (2013) and Neuman (2017, pp. 55–7).

3 There is a lack of consensus among pundits about whether the VG (and other similar entities within Europe) should be referred to as regional or subregional groupings, with both expressions often used interchangeably (Dangerfield 2014, p. 73). For the purpose of this article, the latter term is used hereinafter.

4 See also Karnitschnig (2017).

5 ‘Visegrad Group say EU is Stronger with the UK as a Member’, Euronews, 8 June 2016, available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8P9OkqeUGY, accessed 3 October 2017.

6 ‘Sobotka: Brexit není koncem světa ani EU, Británie se jen vydala jinou cestou a oslabí ji to’, Aktuálně.cz, 24 June 2016, available at: https://zpravy.aktualne.cz/domaci/sobotka-brexit-neni-koncem-sveta-ani-eu-britanie-se-jen-vyda/r~5272c91639da11e68d00002590604f2e/?redirected=1510994706, accessed 11 October 2017; ‘Brexit: Británia velí na odchod. Čo bude ďalej? (24–26. júna)’, Euractive.sk, 24 June 2016, available at: https://euractiv.sk/clanky/buducnost-eu/brexit-britania-veli-na-odchod-co-bude-dalej/, accessed 11 October 2017; ‘Výsledok britského referenda nie je tragédia, ale realita, odkazuje Fico’, Europské noviny, 24 June 2016, available at: https://europskenoviny.sk/2016/06/24/vysledok-britskeho-referenda-nie-tragedia-realita-odkazuje-fico/, accessed 11 October 2017; ‘Viktor Orbán's Interpretation of the Brexit Referendum’, Hungarian Spectrum, 24 June 2016, available at: http://hungarianspectrum.org/2016/06/24/viktor-orbans-interpretation-of-the-brexit-referendum/, accessed 11 October 2017; ‘Brexit Caused by EU Problems being “Swept under Carpet”: Polish PM’, Radio Poland, 24 June 2016, available at: http://www.thenews.pl/1/9/Artykul/258758,Brexit-caused-by-EU-problems-being-%E2%80%98swept-under-carpet%E2%80%99-Polish-PM, accessed 11 October 2017.

7 For more information on economic and business ties between the VG and the UK, see, for example, Gyimesi (2016), Chromiec (2017).

8 Poland is the most common non-UK country of birth and non-British nationality in the UK. In 2016 the number of Polish nationals resident in the UK reached one million (ONS 2016), up from 69,000 in 2004, when the country joined the EU (Hawkins & Moses 2016, p. 4).

9 Foster points out the fact that the UK tried to lobby the VG by arguing that ‘an overly attractive UK benefits system … is not in their interests since it causes brain drain in their own countries. “The argument is ‘Do you really want your nurses and mechanics working as baristas in Starbucks in London?’” said one official, “that is not good for their economies and social cohesion either”’ (Foster 2015a).

10 See, for example, Byrne et al. (2017).

11 ‘Cameron Unlikely to Win Genuine EU Reform—Lord Howard’, BBC News, 22 January 2016, available at: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35378989, accessed 13 October 2017.

12 In this regard, see also: Bush (2016), Pacher (2016), Wilkinson and Hughes (2016).

13 Parallel to this, the VG had a high profile in the refugee and migration crisis. Closing ranks, the VG opposed quotas of refugee relocation between EU countries and in the end secured concessions from its EU partners on migration policy (Nič 2016, p. 282; Hadfield 2017).

14 Yet, as Turner and Green (2017, p. 5) see it, the Slovak presidency was hardly affected by Brexit.

15 See also Eyal (2016).

16 ‘ČR chce Británii v EU, ujistil Camerona Sobotka’, ČT24, 22 January 2016, available at: http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24/domaci/1666513-zive-cameron-v-praze-resi-i-socialni-davky-pro-cechy-v-britanii, accessed 14 October 2017.

17 ‘EU Summit: High Stakes and Missed Meals’, BBC News, 20 February 2016, available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-35620627, accessed 12 October 2017.

18 The Visegrád plus format is used to denote cooperation between the VG and other countries or regional groups.

19 ‘Migrants in the UK: An Overview’, The Migration Observatory, 21 February 2017, available at: http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/migrants-in-the-uk-an-overview/, accessed 11 October 2017.

20 ‘Britský premiér Cameron navštívil Prahu, Sobotkovi přislíbil pomoc se zablokovaným prodejem letounů’, Aktuálně.cz, 22 January 2016, available at: https://zpravy.aktualne.cz/domaci/politika/britsky-premier-cameron-se-sesel-s-predsedou-ods-fialou/r~ca7a9416c0f911e5ae64002590604f2e/, accessed 12 October 2017; ‘Jak se země EU dívají na Cameronův návrh omezovat sociální dávky?’, Euractiv.cz, 10 February 2016, available at: http://euractiv.cz/clanky/aktualne-v-eu/prehled-jak-se-zeme-eu-divaji-na-cameronuv-navrh-omezovat-socialni-davky-013146/, accessed 25 September 2017.

21 ‘Niemcy, Francja i Włochy “sprzedają” Polaków w UK, brawo szef MSZ Waszczykowski’, Polskie Echo, 22 November 2015, available at: http://polskie-echo.com/niemcy-francja-i-wlochy-sprzedaja-polakow-w-uk-brawo-szef-msz-waszczykowski/, accessed 28 September 2017.

22 The following analysis starts before the official commencement of Article 50 negotiations, as the first proclamations of EU member countries’ priorities and positions regarding the future withdrawal negotiations were made almost immediately after the announcement of the British referendum results.

23 ‘Visegrad Group to Table Proposals at Bratislava Summit’, Euractive.com, 7 September 2016, available at: https://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/news/visegrad-group-to-table-proposals-at-bratislava-summit/, accessed 11 June 2018.

24 Under the ‘V4 Connects’ motto, the 2017/2018 Hungarian Presidency focused on four areas where it believed the Visegrád cooperation could deliver tangible results: European Visegrád; Regional Visegrád; Digital Visegrád; and Global Visegrád (Visegrad Group 2017).

25 ‘Joint Statement of the Heads of Governments of the V4 Countries. “Strong Europe—Union of Action and Trust”. Input to Rome Declaration 2017’, Vláda ČR, p. 3, available at: https://www.vlada.cz/assets/media-centrum/aktualne/Joint-Statement-of-the-Heads-of-Governments-of-the-V4-Countries-_Strong-Europe-_-Union-of-Action-and-Trust_-Input-to-Rome-Declaration-2017.pdf, accessed 11 October 2017.

26 See also Buras (2017).

27 With two countries (the Czech Republic and Slovakia) on the one side and two others (Poland and Hungary) on the other. See, for instance, Foy and Byrne (2016), Chromiec (2017), and Zgut (2017).

28 ‘Visegrad Group of EU States “Could Veto Brexit Deal”’, BBC News, 16 September 2016, available at: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37396805, accessed 11 September 2017.

29 Anonymous interviews with Czech and Slovak officials conducted by the author during a research stay in Brussels during September 2017. See also Bartha (2017), Chromiec (2017, p. 6), Foy and Byrne (2016).

30 ‘Slovakia's Future is with Core EU, not Eurosceptic Eastern Nations: PM’, Reuters, 15 August 2017, available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-slovakia-politics-eu/slovakias-future-is-with-core-eu-not-eurosceptic-eastern-nations-pm-idUSKCN1AV1YY, accessed 11 June 2018.

31 See, for instance, ‘Hungarian Foreign Minister on Visegrád Group: We Strengthen Each Other’, Czech Radio, 2 February 2018, available at: https://www.radio.cz/en/section/curraffrs/hungarian-foreign-minister-on-visegrad-group-we-strengthen-each-other, accessed 30 June 2019; ‘Orbán: V4 Success Behind “Brussels Attacks”’, Hungary Today, 25 June 2018, available at: https://hungarytoday.hu/orban-v4-success-behind-brussels-attacks/, accessed 30 June 2019.

32 In this context it is worth recalling that the French President Nicolas Sarkozy warned VG leaders in 2009 ‘not to make a habit of pre-summit meetings’ (Mahony 2009).

33 Further illustrative of the group's divisions vis-à-vis the EU was, for instance, the question of Europe's cross-border labour rules: while the Czech Republic and Slovakia cautiously supported the French-led compromise to tighten up the rules on posted workers (posted workers are citizens from one EU country who take temporary work in another) in the EU outside their home countries and voted for the directive, Poland and Hungary voted against it (Karnitschnig 2017; Zgut 2017).

34 For a detailed analysis see Simecka (2013).

35 ‘Česko chce pozorovatelské místo v eurozóně. Jinak ztratí vliv, obává se Sobotka’, ČT24, 28 August 2017, available at: http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24/domaci/2222860-sobotka-chce-pozorovatelske-misto-v-eurozone, accessed 15 October 2017.

36 For more on Russian investment in Hungary's nuclear power industry, see Thoburn (2015).

37 See also Samson (2010, p. 102).

38 For more information on the stances of the Visegrád Group towards Russia, see, for example, Wagrowska (2009), Samson (2010), Dangerfield (2012), Marušiak (2015), Pomorska (2017).

39 ‘V4 Countries want all EU Member States to Discuss Brexit’, Radio Poland, 27 June 2016, available at: http://thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/259050,V4-countries-want-all-EU-member-states-to-discuss-Brexit, accessed 3 October 2017.

40 ‘Visegrad Group of EU States “Could Veto Brexit Deal”’, BBC News, 16 September 2016, available at: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37396805, accessed 11 September 2017.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Monika Brusenbauch Meislova

Monika Brusenbauch Meislova, Department of International Relations and European Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Masaryk University Brno, Joštova 10, 602 00 Brno, Czech Republic. Email: [email protected]