https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8423-5701
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Abstract
The pro-Russian protests that spread across the east and south of Ukraine in the aftermath of the Euromaidan Revolution set largely similar regions on starkly different trajectories. While Donbas saw a successful rebellion and later slid into war, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk managed to avoid a separatist scenario. In this article, I examine the critical early stages of the pro-Russian unrest and argue that the initial success of the separatist rebellion in Donbas and its failure in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk can be best explained by the differences in elite strategies and civil society organisation in the respective regions.
Notes
1 I use the term ‘revolution’ to reflect the common reference to the events of February 2014 as the ‘Revolution of Dignity’ and treat the term narrowly as the toppling of an authoritarian leader.
2 The protests were initially anti-Maidan and developed a pronounced pro-Russian stance later on. I use the two qualifiers interchangeably since earlier protests featured pro-Russian statements and chants. Many of my informants did not differentiate between the two qualifiers either.
3 The data are preliminary, kindly provided by Dr Volodymyr Ishchenko, Director of the UPCD Project, Centre for Social and Labour Research, Kyiv, Ukraine.
4 Notable exceptions include Popova and Shevel (Citation2015) and Buckholz (Citation2017).
5 ‘Dokazy prychetnosti vlady RF do posiahannia na terytorialnu tsilisnist Ukrainy’, YouTube, 22 August 2016, available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=8&v=l6K1_vHrJPU&feature=emb_title, accessed 20 February 2020.
6 ‘SurkovLeaks: 1GB Mail Cache Retrieved by Ukrainian Hacktivists’, 25 October 2016, available at: https://informnapalm.org/en/surkovleaks/; ‘SurkovLeaks (part 2): Hacktivists Publish New Email Dump’, 3 November 2016, available at: https://informnapalm.org/en/surkovleaks-part2/; ‘SurkovLeaks (part 3): Analysis of the Correspondence of Surkov’s First Deputy Inal Ardzinba’, 22 November 2016, available at: https://informnapalm.org/en/surkovleaks-part-3-analysis-correspondence-surkovs-first-deputy-inal-ardzinba/, accessed 20 February 2020.
7 The Glaz’ev tapes seem to be authentic, but the Office of the Prosecutor General is yet to release the full recordings. The authenticity of the Surkov email leaks has been confirmed by reputable sources such as Bellingcat and the Atlantic Council.
8 ‘Dokazy prychetnosti vlady RF do posiahannia na terytorialnu tsilisnist Ukrainy’, YouTube, 22 August 2016, available at: https://youtu.be/l6K1_vHrJPU?t=275, accessed 12 March 2021.
9 ‘Ukraine Separatists Plan to go Ahead with Referendum Despite Putin’s Calls for Dialogue’, DW, 8 May 2014, available at: https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-separatists-plan-to-go-ahead-with-referendum-despite-putins-calls-for-dialogue/a-17619156, accessed 20 February 2020.
10 Author’s calculations based upon the UPCD dataset.
11 Author’s interview with Oleksiy Krysenko, Kharkiv, 14 July 2016.
12 Zhukov’s study covers a longer period of time and it is possible that miners took part in the fighting during the later stages of the conflict. Matveeva (Citation2016), for example, reports that ‘staff and miners of Donetsk Metallurgic Factory’ formed a battalion in late June.
13 Ethnic Russians comprise 17.6%, 25.6%, 39.0% and 38.2% of the population of Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions. The respective percentages for native Russian-speakers are 31.9%, 44.3%, 68.8% and 74.9% (2001 census data; author’s calculation based on 2001 census data available at: http://database.ukrcensus.gov.ua/MULT/Database/Census/databasetree_en.asp, accessed 20 February 2020).
14 Ethnic Russians comprise 24%, 34%, 47% and 24% of the population of Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk and Slovyansk cities, while native Russian speakers make up 53%, 66%, 85% and 56%, respectively (author’s calculation based on 2001 census data, available at: http://database.ukrcensus.gov.ua/MULT/Database/Census/databasetree_en.asp, accessed 20 February 2020).
15 Given the minimal support for separatism and weaker support for federalisation in Dnipropetrovsk, most of the comparative weight in the analysis is borne by Kharkiv.
16 ‘Partiya Regionov osudila Yanukovicha’, delo.ua, 23 February 2014, available at: http://delo.ua/ukraine/partija-regionov-osudila-janukovicha-228093/, accessed 20 February 2020.
17 Author’s interview with an NGO representative, Slovyansk, 18 July 2016.
18 Author’s interview with an NGO representative, Slovyansk, 18 July 2016.
19 ‘Vsled za Yanukovichem v Rossiyu sbezhali okolo 5 tysyach ukrainskikh chinovnikov i ikh rodstvennikov begletsy’, Censor.net, 21 October 2014, available at: http://censor.net.ua/news/308064/vsled_za_yanukovichem_v_rossiyu_sbejali_okolo_5_tysyach_ukrainskih_chinovnikov_i_ih_rodstvennikov_begletsy, accessed 20 February 2020.
20 Autonomy refers to some degree of devolution of powers from the central government to the regions.
21 Author’s interview with Paweł Pieniążek, Kyiv, 26 July 2016.
22 ‘Vystuplenie Rinata Akhmetova 11.04.2014’, 11 April 2014, available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDQgG82KTmk, accessed 20 February 2020.
23 ‘Rinat Akhmetov: “Shchastlivyi Donbass v edinoi Ukraine”’, 14 May 2014, available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHhsTbX6e7w, accessed 20 February 2020.
24 Author’s interview with an NGO representative, Slovyansk, 18 July 2016.
25 Author’s interview with an NGO representative from Donetsk, Kyiv, 6 July 2016.
26 Author’s interview with an NGO representative, Slovyansk, 18 July 2016.
27 ‘Valerii: “Nado bylo bombit”’, tv2, available at: http://tv2.today/Istorii/Valeriy-nado-bylo-bombit, accessed 20 February 2020.
28 Author’s interview with an NGO representative, Slovyansk, 18 July 2016.
29 On Strelkov in Slovyansk and his connection to the Kremlin, see Matveeva (Citation2018, pp. 106–11, 129–30).
30 ‘Emergency Statement of Rinat Akhmetov on the Situation in Donbass’, YouTube, 20 May 2014, available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8rw-HR-HiU, accessed 20 February 2020.
31 ‘Rinat Akhmetov’s Choice’, The Economist, 20 May 2014, available at: http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2014/05/ukraine, accessed 20 February 2020.
32 ‘Yefremov: povtorit “krymskii stsenarii” na materikovoi Ukraine nevozmozhno’, BBC Ukraine, 17 April 2014, available at: http://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/ukraine_in_russian/2014/04/140417_ru_s_efremov_interview, accessed 20 February 2020.
33 ‘Yefremov Turchinovu: Deistviya vlasti na yugo-vostoke vedut k razvalu strany’, 112.ua, 12 May 2014, available at: https://112.ua/video/efremov-turchinovu-deystviya-vlasti-na-yugo-vostoke-vedut-k-razvalu-strany-36851.html, accessed 20 February 2020.
34 ‘Da, ya sponsor opolcheniya—Yefremov dal interv’yu v LNR, pered arestom v Kieve’, 30 July 2016, available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCYjUtXUWcU, accessed 20 February 2020.
35 ‘Skandalnogo eks-regionala Yefremova vypustili iz-pod strazhi: podrobnosti’, Obrazovatel, 22 July 2019, available at: https://www.obozrevatel.com/crime/skandalnogo-eks-regionala-efremova-vyipustili-iz-pod-strazhi-podrobnosti.htm, accessed 20 February 2020.
36 Author’s interviews with: an NGO representative from Donetsk, Kyiv, 6 July 2016; an NGO representative, Slovyansk, 18 July 2016.
37 UPCD dataset.
38 Protest issues varied from pro-Maidan to pro-government, to anti-separatism, to anti-Russia.
39 Author’s interview with an NGO representative from Donetsk, Kyiv, 6 July 2016. The UPCD dataset reports slightly lower or ‘unknown’ numbers for these events.
40 Author’s interview with an NGO representative from Donetsk, Kyiv, 6 July 2016.
41 Author’s interview with an NGO representative from Donetsk, Kyiv, 6 July 2016. See also ‘Donetsk kotoryi soprotivlyalsya’, Radio Svoboda, 13 March 2019, available at: https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/donbass-realii/29819108.html, accessed 12 March 2021.
42 Author’s interview with an NGO representative from Donetsk, Kyiv, 6 July 2016.
43 The active pro-Russian role of the Church (Moscow Patriarchate) in Donbas and its passive stance in Kharkiv were mentioned by several of the author’s informants.
44 On the role of football clubs during the Euromaidan, see Fisun (Citation2014).
45 Author’s interview with Nataliya Zubar, Kharkiv, 12 July 2016.
46 Author’s interview with Nataliya Zubar, Kharkiv, 12 July 2016.
47 ‘V Khar’kove poobeshchali navesti poryadok na Ukraine’, Rossiiskaya gazeta, 22 February 2014, available at: https://rg.ru/2014/02/22/harkov.html, accessed 20 February 2020.
48 Author’s interview with Nataliya Zubar, Kharkiv, 12 July 2016.
49 ‘Sud otpustil Dobkina pod domashnii arest’, lb.ua, 11 March 2014, available at: https://lb.ua/news/2014/03/11/258997_sud_posadil_dobkina_pod_domashniy.html, accessed 20 February 2020.
50 Also reported in the UPCD dataset.
51 Author’s interview with Nataliya Zubar, Kharkiv, 12 July 2016; UPCD dataset; ‘Frontline: The Battle for Ukraine’, PBS, 27 May 2014, available at: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/battle-for-ukraine/, accessed 20 February 2020.
52 Author’s interview with Igor Semyvolos, Kyiv, 7 July 2016.
53 Author’s interview with Nataliya Zubar, Kharkiv, 12 July 2016.
54 Author’s interview with Nataliya Zubar, Kharkiv, 12 July 2016.
55 Author’s interviews with: Nataliya Zubar, Kharkiv, 12 July 2016; Oleksiy Krysenko, Kharkiv, 14 July 2016. UPCD dataset 2017.
56 UPCD dataset.
57 Author’s interview with Igor Semyvolos, Kyiv, 7 July 2016.
58 Author’s interview with Nataliya Zubar, Kharkiv, 12 July 2016.
59 Author’s interview with Nataliya Yakovleva, Kharkiv, 14 July 2016.
60 Author’s interview with Elena Shvets, Dnipropetrovsk, 21 July 2016.
61 Author’s interview with Il’ya Rybakov, Dnipropetrovsk, 22 July 2016.
62 ‘Kolomoyskyi-Tsaryov. Proslushka. Telefonnyi razgovor’, YouTube, 15 May 2014, available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9H4Eb9UI5xg, accessed 20 February 2020.
63 See also Korban’s interview for Hromadske TV, available at: https://www.056.ua/article/727461, accessed 20 February 2020.
64 Author’s interview with Il’ya Rybakov, Dnipropetrovsk, 22 July 2016.
65 Author’s interview with Natalia Makukha, Dnipropetrovsk, 21 July 2016.
66 ‘Ihor Kolomoyskyi. 1/3. “V gostyah u Dmitriya Gordona” (2018)’, YouTube, 20 December 2018, available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7U8Fw4wQ9E, accessed 20 February 2020.
67 Author’s interview with an NGO representative from Donetsk, Kyiv, 6 July 2016.
68 Author’s interviews with: Yuriy Ostapyuk, Dnipropetrovsk, 22 July 2016; Elena Shvets, Dnipropetrovsk, 21 July 2016.
69 Author’s interview with Yuriy Ostapyuk, Dnipropetrovsk, 22 July 2016.
70 Author’s calculations based upon the UPCD dataset.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Silviya Nitsova
Silviya Nitsova, PhD Candidate, Department of Political Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 300 Hamilton Hall, CB 3265, UNC Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3265, USA. Email: [email protected]