https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8830-8979
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Abstract
Russia has sought to maintain its influence in the South Caucasus by a variety of means, viewing the region as an area of crucial importance for its core strategic interests. However, China’s prominence in the South Caucasus has increased significantly over the past decade, as the South Caucasus states seek to diversify their diplomatic and economic ties. This essay explores whether Russia’s regional hegemony in the South Caucasus is being challenged by China: does China’s growing engagement with the states of the South Caucasus pose a challenge to Russian influence within its traditional zone of ‘privileged interest’?
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No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 For more detail on the various types of factors that may explain Russian foreign policy, see Elias Götz’s introduction to this special issue.
2 In the aftermath of the 2008 war with Georgia, Medvedev identified five principles of Russian foreign policy including the notion that there are areas where Russia has ‘privileged interests’ as a result of ‘special historical relations’. He stated that these regions were home to countries which are bound together with Russia ‘as friends and good neighbours. We will pay particular attention to our work in these regions and build friendly ties with these countries, our close neighbours’. Whilst he did not name any specific area, he is thought to have been referring to the post-Soviet space (Medvedev Citation2008).
3 ‘Ukaz Prezidenta Rossiiskoi Federatsii O Strategii natsional’noi bezopastnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii’, 31 December 2015, Approved by decree of the President of the Russian Federation, available at: http://static.kremlin.ru/media/events/files/ru/l8iXkR8XLAtxeilX7JK3XXy6Y0AsHD5v.pdf, accessed 2 December 2020.
4 On Russo–Turkish relations in post-Soviet Eurasia, see Seçkin Köstem’s contribution in this special issue.
5 For more on Russia’s relations with Armenia, see Tom Casier’s contribution to this special issue.
6 On Russia’s historical interests and activities in the Eurasian region, see Andrei Tsygankov’s contribution to this special issue.
7 In the face of structural deficiencies, both Georgia and Azerbaijan have used creative agency to achieve their foreign policy objectives, seeking to make themselves useful to the international community and influence the perception of other states about their utility, capability and authority.
8 For further details see: ‘Georgia–Russia Optical Fibre Submarine Cable System’, DanTelco, available at: http://dantelco.com/ge-ru-system.html, accessed 8 April 2022.
9 This deal sees Iran exporting gas to Armenia to be used in power generation and, in return, importing electricity. ‘Iran, Armenia Agree to Expand Long-term Energy Cooperation’, MassisPost, 26 December 2020, available at: https://massispost.com/2020/12/iran-armenia-agree-to-expand-long-term-energy-cooperation/, accessed 18 April 2021.
10 Kyrgyzstan acceded after financial assistance from Moscow, and Tajikistan has also expressed an interest in joining. For more on the EEU, see, for example, Cadier (Citation2015), Dragneva and Wolczuk (Citation2017), and Libman (Citation2018).
11 ‘President Sargsyan: Armenia's Decision to Join Customs Union Does Not Mean Reducing Role of EU’, News.am, 12 May 2014, available at: http://news.am/eng/news/208771.html, accessed 2 June 2020.
12 ‘President Sargsyan: Armenia’s Decision to Join Customs Union Does Not Mean Reducing Role of EU’, News.am, 12 May 2014, available at: http://news.am/eng/news/208771.html, accessed 2 June 2020.
13 ‘BBC Monitoring Media Roundup: South Caucasus’, 31 January 2014, available at: https://monitoring.bbc.co.uk/, accessed 22 March 2014.
14 In this context, it is important to stress that Abkhazia and South Ossetia have not become hapless pawns of Russia but are actors with their own interests that at times defy Moscow’s wishes (Ambrosio & Lange Citation2016).
15 ‘Tri goda Medvedeva’, Izvestiya, 11 March 2011, available at: https://iz.ru/news/372280, accessed 16 June 2011.
16 The 4th Military Base in South Ossetia includes an Ossetian Battalion, which was formed in 2012 specifically for South Ossetian citizens. ‘V sostave 4-I gvardeiskoi voennoi bazyRF v Yuzhnoi Osetii formiruetsya Osetinskii batal’on’, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 15 February 2012, available at: https://www.ng.ru/cis/2012-02-15/7_osetia.html, accessed 4 April 2022.
17 The EUMM Monitor, European Union Monitoring Mission in Georgia, issue 7, October 2018, available at: https://eumm.eu/data/file/6486/The_EUMM_Monitor_issue_7_ENG.pdf, accessed 23 May 2022.
18 For more on Russo–Chinese relations in Central Asia, see Jeffrey Mankoff’s contribution to this special issue.
19 CEFC was declared bankrupt in 2018 and its share in the FIZ was transferred to the Euro-Asian Management Group. The founder of CEFC Energy allegedly has close links to the People’s Liberation Army (Rolland Citation2018).
20 See, ‘AIIB Approves $600 Million to Support Energy Project of Azerbaijan’, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, 21 December 2016, available at: https://www.aiib.org/en/news-events/news/2016/AIIB-approves-$600-million-to-support-energy-project-of-Azerbaijan.html, accessed 3 November 2020. Both Azerbaijan and Georgia are members of the AIIB. In 2017 the AIIB also approved a US$114 million loan to Georgia for the construction of a road bypassing the Black Sea city of Batumi. ‘AIIB, Georgia Sign Loan Agreement for Batumi Bypass Road Project’, 19 June 2017, available at: https://www.aiib.org/en/news-events/news/2017/AIIB-Georgia-Sign-Loan-Agreement-for-Batumi-Bypass-Road-Project.html, accessed 3 April 2022.
21 In 2011, Fortune Oil, a company headquartered in Hong Kong, acquired a 35% stake in an Armenian company that controls three iron ore mines. However, it has faced a number of problems developing the assets, including questions over economic viability. For more on this, see, www.fortune-oil.com/reports/2013/F/Fortune%20Oil%20Armenia%202%20December%202013.pdf.
22 ‘China Interested in Iran–Armenia Rail Project’, Financial Tribune, 5 March 2018, available at: https://financialtribune.com/articles/economy-business-and-markets/83024/china-interested-in-iran-armenia-rail-project, accessed 27 January 2022.
23 ‘Who Needs Zangezur Corridor?’, Vestnik Kavkaza, 17 August 2021, available at: https://en.vestikavkaza.ru/analysis/Who-needs-Zangezur-corridor.html, accessed 3 April 2022.
24 ‘Pashinyan schitaet otkrytie kommunikatsii regiona poleznym dlya Armenii i Azerbaidzhana’, Armenpress, 20 March 2021, available at: https://armenpress.am/rus/news/1046669.html, accessed 20 April 2021.
25 ‘China to Provide 10 Million Yuan Assistance to Armenia’, News.am, 4 September 2017, available at: https://news.am/eng/news/408033.html, accessed 30 June 2020.
26 ‘Tbilisi Sea New City’, Hualing Group, available at: http://hualing.ge/language/en/tbilisi-sea-new-city-2/, accessed 1 December 2020.
27 ‘Chinese School Inaugurated in Armenia’, Azatutyun, 22 August 2018, available at: https://www.azatutyun.am/a/29447816.html, accessed 10 November 2020.
28 For more detail, see ‘International Religious Belief or Freedom Alliance’, US Department of State, Office of International Religious Freedom, available at: https://www.state.gov/international-religious-freedom-or-belief-alliance/, accessed 4 April 2022.
29 ‘Rychagi kitaiskogo vliyaniya: “Kitaizatsiya” v Tsentralnoi Azii i Rossii’, Information and Analytical Center for the Study of Socio-Political Processes in the Post-Soviet Space, Moscow State University, 3 November 2020, available at: https://ia-centr.ru/experts/iats-mgu/rychagi-kitayskogo-vliyaniya-kitaizatsiya-v-tsentralnoy-azii-i-rossii/?mc_cid=f10d890609&mc_eid=b7db4de0aa, accessed 11 December 2020.
30 ‘Rychagi kitaiskogo vliyaniya: “Kitaizatsiya” v Tsentralnoi Azii i Rossii’, Information and Analytical Center for the Study of Socio-Political Processes in the Post-Soviet Space, Moscow State University, 3 November 2020, available at: https://ia-centr.ru/experts/iats-mgu/rychagi-kitayskogo-vliyaniya-kitaizatsiya-v-tsentralnoy-azii-i-rossii/?mc_cid=f10d890609&mc_eid=b7db4de0aa, accessed 11 December 2020.
31 Much of the research for this essay was concluded before the outbreak of the 2020 Karabakh war. For more on that conflict and Turkish–Russian relations in post-Soviet Eurasia, see Seçkin Köstem’s essay in this special issue.
32 ‘Turkey, Russia Seal Deal for Karabakh “Peacekeeping Centre”’, Moscow Times, 1 December 2020, available at: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/01/turkey-russia-seal-deal-for-karabakh-peacekeeping-center-a72195, accessed 1 December 2020.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Tracey German
Tracey German, Defence Studies Department, Joint Services Command and Staff College, King’s College London, Faringdon Road, Watchfield, SN6 8TS, UK. Email: [email protected]