Seismic risk scenario planning and sustainable tourism management: Christchurch and the Alpine Fault zone, South Island, New Zealand

Abstract

This paper makes the case for natural disaster emergency planning to be incorporated into sustainable tourism strategies, using seismic risk scenario planning as a technique, and the Southern Alps of the South island of New Zealand as an example. The Alpine Fault is a 450-km-long geological structure running the length of the Southern Alps in New Zealand. Paleoseismic evidence suggests that a significant earthquake of magnitude (M) ∼ 7.8–8.0 is overdue. Coincident with this area of high seismic potential is a growing tourism industry, capitalising on the region's international reputation for nature-based tourism experiences. The scenario planning approach uses an isoseismal modelling methodology to describe a range of specific vulnerabilities in the tourism sector and highlight the physical outcomes and consequences for tourism-related infrastructure, transport, food supply, rescue, and survival likely to result from a future M8 earthquake on the Alpine Fault. Interviews with hazard management agencies investigated how tourism is considered in the context of current hazard management policies, and the urgent need to bring industry policies into partnership with other planning agencies and policies. Risk management is shown to be essential to address the triple bottom line of sustainable tourism management.

地震风险场景规划和可持续性旅游管理：新西兰南岛的基督城和高山故障地带

该文章使用了地震风险场景规划为技巧，用新西兰南岛的南阿尔卑斯地区为例，将地震灾害紧急规划放入可持续性旅游战略中去讨论。高山故障的地理结构在新西兰南阿尔卑斯上有450公里长。古地震的证据显示一个7.8到8级的大地震快要来了。而同时在高地震可能的地区里却有着持续增长的旅游业。这是因为该地区以自然为主的旅游业有着国际影响力。该场景模拟规划方法使用了地震震力模拟的方式来描述旅游业中的一系列的脆弱性，并且重点提到了在高山故障地带将来若有8级地震时引起的与旅游相关的设施，交通，食物供应，营救和存活这些事件的后果。文章用了风险管理部门的一些采访中去了解在现在的风险管理政策中，旅游是如何被考虑到的。并且文章提出了建立产业政策和其他规划部门和政策之间的合作关系的重要需求。风险管理在可持续性旅游管理中的三大原则是非常需要的。

Keywords:

• earthquakes
• seismic risk
• scenario planning
• isoseismal modelling
• New Zealand
• natural hazards

关键词:

• 地震
• 旅游
• 地震风险
• 等震模拟模型
• 新西兰
• 场景规划

Acknowledgements

The author is sincerely grateful to the University of Otago and the New Zealand Earthquake Commission for their generous financial support of this research. Prof. James Higham is thanked for his helpful critique of the paper. Thanks are also extended to Warwick Smith (GNS Science, Wellington) for his help with the isoseismal modelling.

Notes

1. Magnitude (M) will be in bold type throughout this paper, as is the convention in seismological research.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Caroline Orchiston

Caroline Orchiston has an honours degree and practical experience in geology, and transitioned into social science in 2002. Following a masters degree on environmental management in marine tourism in New Zealand, she completed her PhD at the University of Otago investigating the potential impact of a large future Alpine Fault earthquake on the tourism industry in the Southern Alps of New Zealand in 2010. She has worked on collaborative projects with the Joint Centre for Disaster Research in New Zealand and is now a postdoctoral research fellow at the University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.