Scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions reduction from tourism: an extended tourism satellite account approach in a regional setting

Abstract

Tourism results in the emission of climate-changing greenhouse gases. There has been limited destination-focused quantitative analysis of how tourism might be reshaped to reduce these emissions. This paper uses an extended tourism environmental satellite account methodology to examine the case of tourism in Wales, a United Kingdom region. It shows how an estimate of the emissions associated with trips to, and in, the region – internally, from the rest of the UK and from abroad – can contribute to regional aspirations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis suggests that substantial emissions cuts are dependent upon technical developments outside of tourism itself. Four potential scenarios are devised and analysed. Scenario 1 shows the value of low carbon electricity production in cutting tourism-related emissions. Scenario 2 analyses a possible 50% fall in international arrivals and 10% increase in UK domestic arrivals – maintaining employment but reducing emissions. Scenario 3 shows the effects of switch from private to public transport modes for 50% of UK resident arrivals. Scenario 4 examines the outcomes of reducing ground transport emissions by using electric, biofuel and hybrid technologies. All scenarios cut emissions, none are highly effective and most are dependent on changes in society and governance.

旅游中的温室气体排放减少的场景：在区域化设置下的一种延伸的旅游卫星记事方法

旅游导致了气候改变的温室气体排放。关于旅游如何可以重新塑造并减低这些排放，这方面的目的地为着重点的量化研究是非常有限的。该文章用了一种延伸的旅游环境卫星记事方法来检验威尔士，英国的一个区域，的旅游案例。它显示了从英国其他地方和国外进入到该区域和在该区域内的旅行所造成的排放量是如何估计的，这可以贡献于区域为减低温室气体排放的意愿。分析建议大量的排放量减低是依靠于旅游以外的技术发展的。文章设计了并且分析了四种可能的场景。场景一指出了低碳电力发电在减少旅游相关排放量的价值。场景二分析了如果维持雇佣人数但减少排放会导致国际游客的5%的下降，同时国内游客有10%的上涨。场景三显示了50%的英国居民游客从私驾改到公共交通模式的效果。场景四检验了使用电力，生物燃料和混合技术来减少地面交通排放的结果。所有的场景都能减少排放，但没有一个是高度有效的，大部分都依赖于社会和政策治理的改变。

Keywords:

• sustainability
• greenhouse gas
• climate change
• scenarios
• modelling

关键词:

• 气候改变
• 旅游影响
• 政策制定
• 可持续性发展
• 环境指标

Notes

1. The modelling in this paper reports GHGs from travel fuel in terms of CO₂ only (to avoid tricky issues around, for example, radiative forcing), but production emissions in terms of a basket of GHGs re-weighted to CO₂ equivalents in term of Global Warming Potential (GWP or CO₂e). The term GHG is used throughout. See: http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/climate_stats/gg_emissions/intro/intro.aspx

2. It is interesting that whilst UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008) recognises the difficulties associated with ever-increasing tourist kilometres, the report focuses on technical solutions to transport emissions, rather than the arguably simpler alternative of reducing that travel.

3. http://www.crctourism.com.au/Default.aspx

4. It is likely that emissions directly from fuel burn comprise at least 75%–80% of total well-to-wheel emissions for vehicles using internal combustion engines, and travel 75% of overall tourism emissions, so the majority of emissions are likely to be captured; Wang (2003).

5. Full data at http://www.airquality.co.uk/archive/reports/cat07/0909240909_DAGHGI_1990-2007_Issue_1.xls

6. The focus on resource efficiency messaging to tourism business is typified at the Visit Wales destination management website http://www.dmwales.com/?q=content/sustainable-tourism.

7. http://new.gstcouncil.org/resource-center

8. See www.e4g.org.uk.

9. Although of course the actual level of emissions per passenger km will vary depending on the new level of rail carriage occupancy, but with this difficult to model.

10. http://www.eurostar.com/UK/uk/leisure/about_eurostar/environment/greener_than_flying.jsp although the figure rises to 24g ppkm using more onerous DEFRA assumptions on average, rather than actual supplier generation mix.

11. This project to Eco-footprint tourism in South West England now looks, unfortunately, to be moribund following the dissolution of the regional development agency http://resource-accounting.org.uk/reap-tourism.