Present and future climate potentials for several outdoor tourism activities in Spain

Abstract

Spain is one of the leading tourist destinations worldwide, but also a climate change hot-spot. Weather conditions throughout the year have enabled the implementation of alternative outdoor leisure activities to beach-based tourism, helping to alleviate the strong seasonality. Climate is currently a positive resource but it could become a limiting factor for these activities in the future. Here, we assess the present and future conditions by adopting the second generation climate index for tourism (CIT) to quantify the climate potentials for cultural, golf, sailing, hiking, cycling and football activities. Present and future potentials are derived using observed and projected daily meteorological data from the ERA-5 reanalysis and the DMI-HIRHAM5 regional climate model (RCM) included in EURO-CORDEX project, respectively. A quantile–quantile adjustment is applied to the projected CIT data to correct biases at the local scale. Present climate potentials confirm the optimal conditions of the Spanish Mediterranean coast for practicing all the activities in spring and autumn, while in summer, ideal conditions only prevail for sailing. Projections show a general future increase of excellent climate potentials in winter and a general improvement of the weather assets in the northern half of the country during the shoulder seasons, except for cycling and football.

Keywords:

• Climate change
• regional climate model
• outdoor leisure activities
• climate index for tourism
• quantile–quantile adjustment
• Spain

Acknowledgements

This research is framed within the CGL2017-82868-R (COASTEPS) project, funded by the Spanish “Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad” and partially supported with FEDER funds, and the TRAMPAS (PID2020-113036RB-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033) project funded by the “Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI) from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación of Spain”. The first author was also supported by the FP I-CAIB (FPI/1931/2016) grant, from the “Conselleria d'Innovació, Recerca i Turisme del Govern de les Illes Balears and the Fons Social Europeu”. The authors acknowledge the EURO-CORDEX project, sponsored by the World Climate Research Program (WRCP). We also thank ErgonSim SME for providing the Fiala Thermal Physiology and Comfort (FPC) Model Version 5.4.2. The ECMWF and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) for the ERA5 dataset are also acknowledged.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Maria Francisca Cardell

Dr. Cardell is a PhD researcher of the Meteorology Group at the Department of Physics, University of the Balearic Islands (Spain). Her main line of research is the statistical downscaling of the future regional impacts of climate change in Europe and the study of the associated extreme weather events (i.e. heat waves, heavy rainfall, persistent droughts). Her main tool for conducting research is the design and application of quantile-quantile adjustments to correct climate model outputs at local scales. Along her thesis, she has also worked on the assessment of future climate change impacts on wine grape production and tourism.

Arnau Amengual

Dr. Amengual is a tenure-track contract Lecturer with a PhD of the Meteorology Group at the Department of Physics, University of the Balearic Islands, Spain. His professional life is devoted to the study of the main hydro-meteorological ingredients leading to flash floods with a great social and economic impact. He also participates actively in the assessment and study of the regional impacts of climate change. Within this research line, his interests include the design of quantile-to-quantile adjustment methods for the regionalisation of climate model outputs at local scale. Together with the development of additional diagnostic tools, his work aims at assessing more precisely climate change impacts in different fields such as, biodiversity, tourism and health.

Romualdo Romero

Dr. Romero is a permanent Full Professor and the responsible for the Meteorology Group at the Department of Physics, University of the Balearic Islands, Spain. Recurrent aspects of his research are: Mediterranean meteorology, intense cyclones and severe convective phenomena, precipitation climatology, climate and climate change including health and tourism impact assessment, numerical modeling, hydro-meteorological forecasting and probabilistic prediction. Prof. Romero's work has produced 80 articles in specialised international journals and he has led 18 financed research projects. He has also been a prominent member of the international networks MEDEX and HYMEX and a founding member of the spinoff company MeteoClim Services S.L.