Estimating the World Illicit Drug Situation--reality and the seven deadly political sins

Abstract

The reality of the situation with regard to illicit drugs is that it is obscured by politics and we have very little true knowledge about what is happening regarding drug consumption in the world. Sometimes this obfuscation is deliberate and related to drugs, sometimes it is related to decisions to prioritize other problems and sometimes it is the foreign policy of one country that determines that the drug situation, including drug production, trafficking and corruption, is not in its interests to pursue, and even that it should be overlooked. Even where figures are produced these do not always represent the best 'guesstimate' of that country, because some countries greatly exaggerate the amount of drug abuse in order to attract or maintain foreign aid, or other countries will completely underplay the extent of the drug problem through fear that in opening the doors to foreign aid it would open the doors to interference with a profitable drug trade, or more broadly to interference in internal issues. But governments also have their own political agendas, so the drug problem will be exaggerated by those who have something to gain, usually in terms of resources, or a particular moral agenda, and diminished by those who do not think that the resources are available to deal with the situation, or by those who simply do not want to acknowledge that the situation is as it is, and that if ignored it will simply go away. Because politicians demand figures, figures are produced but these often have very little to do with reality. At best they represent an overestimation or underestimation of the true position, at worst a complete fiction. It is only when studies are done to establish the true pattern of drug taking, including the cultural and social context, that any idea of what is really happening can be established.