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ABSTRACT
This paper is the culmination of a multi-country, multi-method investigation into the export effects of Aid for Trade (AfT). Building on previous single-donor statistical studies of AfT, this paper conducts a statistical study of 19 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) AfT donors and then examines the delivery and implementation of AfT in four recipient countries – Indonesia, the Philippines, Timor-Leste and Vietnam – from four donor countries – Germany, Japan, Norway and the US. The paper finds considerable variation in the export effects of the AfT programs, ranging from programs with no impact on recipient country exports to programs that are positively correlated with recipient country exports to the donor country and/or the rest of the world. Taking a closer look at the AfT programs of Germany, Japan, Norway and the US suggests that differences in program design and implementation may account for differences in AfT export effects.
Notes
1. With thanks to an anonymous reviewer for the reminder that ‘development' has been broadly conceptualized for some time and that ‘effectiveness' can depend on a particular conceptualization.
2. The donor countries evaluated in this study are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Ireland, Japan, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK and the US.
3. Source: OECD Data Cubes <gtad.wto.org>.
4. OECD Data Cubes.
5. OECD Data Cubes.
6. For instance, there were only 11 recipient-year instances of non-zero Irish TD AfT from 2001 to 2006 and six of these were to the only recipient, Mozambique, which received Irish TD AfT in more than one year. One final caveat to the empirical results is a discussion of the potential endogeneity between aid and trade – i.e. countries receive aid because they export to the donors. While this would seem more likely when testing for import effects, I nonetheless look for this endogeneity by testing recipient exports against general aid, as was done in Brazys (Citation2010a). These results (available upon request) suggest that this form of endogeneity is not present with AfT and recipient country exports.
7. OECD Data Cubes.
8. For a more detailed discussion of each of these implementing agencies, see Voionmaa and Bruntrup (2009: 66, 75–8). The main AfT-implementing agencies, GTZ, DED and InWent, were consolidated in 2011 into a new agency, GIZ, although this was well after the time period in the statistical study.
9. OECD Data Cubes.
10. OECD Data Cubes.
