India's Nuclear Doctrine: A Critical Analysis

Abstract

Although the broad contours of India's nuclear doctrine were announced within the days of May 1998 nuclear tests, the formal doctrine was made public only five years later. This article will critically examine the evolution of India's nuclear doctrine in terms of the 1999 Kargil conflict and the 2001–2002 military confrontation with Pakistan. This article concludes that the one-page nuclear doctrine of 2003 remains sketchy and subject to varied interpretations. It would therefore be best to formally update or elaborate upon the nuclear doctrine, keeping in view key issues such as India's development of a Ballistic Missile Defence system.

Notes

1. Suo Moto statement by Prime Minister Shri Atal Behari Vajpayee in Parliament on May 27, 1998, at http://www.indianembassy.org/pic/pm-parliament.htm.

2. Paper laid on the table of the House on ‘Evolution of India's Nuclear Policy’, May 27, 1998, at http://www.indianembassy.org/pic/nuclearpolicy.htm.

3. Prime Minister's reply to the discussion in Rajya Sabha on nuclear tests on May 29, 1998, at http://www.indianembassy.org/pic/pm(rs).htm.

4. Prime Minister's statement in parliament on ‘Bilateral Talks with United States’, December 15, 1998, at http://www.indianembassy.org/special/cabinet/primeminister/pm(india-us).htm.

5. ‘The Kargil Review Committee Report (December 15, 1999)’, in From Surprise to Reckoning, Sage Publications, New Delhi, 2000, p. 19.

6. Bruce Reidel, ‘Clinton to Nawaz: You Set U.S. up to Fail: I Won't Let it Happen’ (excerpts), Indian Express, May 18, 2002.

7. Jasjit Singh, ‘Indian Draft Nuclear Doctrine: Some Reflections’, at http:///www.pugwash.org/reports/nw/nw7.htm.

8. Draft Report of National Security Advisory Board on Indian Nuclear Doctrine, August 17, 1999, at http://www.pugwash.org/reports/nw/nw7a.htm.

9. Ibid.

10. Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, ‘Nuclear Doctrine, Declaratory Policy, and Escalation Control’, in Michael Krepon, Rodney W. Jones, and Ziad Haider (eds.), Escalation Control and the Nuclear Option in South Asia, The Henry L. Stimson Centre, Washington, DC, 2004, pp. 101–118.

11. Josy Joseph, ‘Army Chief Goes on the Offensive, Says Situation on Border is “War-like”’, Rediff.com, January 12, 2002, at http://inhome.rediff.com/news/2002/jan/11army2.htm. For full details of nuclear signalling during this period, see Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, n. 10, pp. 101–118.

12. ‘Uncalled for Concerns: Fernandes’, The Hindu, January 12, 2002, at http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/2002/01/12/stories/2002011201040100.htm.

13. See video clip available at http://www.tribuneindia.com/2002/20020326/nation.htm.

14. ‘Pak Pledge on Ultras Averted War’, The Hindu, June 18, 2002.

15. Transcript of press conference by the Official Spokesperson, Ministry of External Affairs, June 17, 2002, at http://www.meaindia.nic.in/.

16. ‘N-Deterrent Averted War: Musharraf’, Agence France-Presse, June 19, 2002.

17. ‘Irresponsible Talk’, The Hindu, June 19, 2002.

18. The CCS Reviews operationalization of Indian Nuclear Doctrine, January 4, 2003, at http://meaindia.nic.in/pressrelease/2003/01/04pr01.htm.

19. Ibid.

20. Ibid.

21. Ibid.

22. James Hackett (ed.), The Military Balance 2009, The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Routledge, London, 2009, p. 345.

23. Ibid.

24. Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), Report on ‘A Decade of Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia’, November 19, 2008, New Delhi, at http://landwarfareindia.org/index.php?action=details&m_id=202.

25. ‘South Asia and Afghanistan’, in Alex Nicoll (ed.), Strategic Survey 2008, IISS, Routledge, London, 2008, p. 287.

26. Ibid.

27. ‘South Asia: Indian Growth, Regional Turbulence’, in Alex Nicoll (ed.), Strategic Survey 2007, IISS, Routledge, London, 2007, p. 345.

28. Ibid.

29. ‘India–U.S. Joint Statement’, July 18, 2005, at http://www.indianembassy.org/press_release/2005/July/21.htm.

30. ‘South Asia and Afghanistan’, n. 25, p. 288.

31. James Hackett (ed.), The Military Balance 2008, IISS, Routledge, London, 2008, p. 330.

32. Jon Grevatt, ‘Lockheed Martin, India Discuss Ballistic Missile Defence System’, Jane's Defence Industry, February 1, 2008, at http://www.janes.com.

33. ‘India to Develop High Speed Interceptors’, The Hindu, January 7, 2008, at http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/008200801071858.htm.