Hypothetical scenario–based impact assessment of climate change on runoff potential of a basin

Abstract

Climate change and its impact on hydrological processes are causes for widespread concern and challenge. In this regard, large numbers of global and regional circulation models (GCMs and RCMs) have been developed to study the future climate. However, these GCMs and RCMs have large uncertainties in defining climate scenarios. The uncertainties associated with these models provided an opportunity to investigate the impact of climate change on the runoff potential of a major basin in India under different assumed plausible hypothetical scenarios. These scenarios were developed by increasing the temperature by 1°C, 2°C and 3°C and rainfall by 5%, 10% and 15%, and then combinations of both. Understanding the hydrologic response of very large river basins again poses a huge challenge to hydrologists. Therefore, an attempt has been made to exploit the capabilities of a variable-infiltration-capacity macro-scale hydrological model to simulate the Satluj river basin. It was found that a slight change in climate may cause huge differences in the hydrological regime of the basin.

Keywords:

• hydrology
• climate change
• hydrological modelling
• impact analysis
• remote sensing
• GIS

Acknowledgements

This article is among the selected papers presented at the “Hydro-2012” conference held at IIT Bombay on December 7-8, 2012, and was short-listed by the Editor for publication in this Journal after re-review and revisions where necessary.