Prediction of urban residents’ travel rate in China based on ARIMA models

Abstract

As a significant indicator to reflect the tourism demand of residents, the variation trends of the travel rate which predicted accurately and scientifically will provide reference frames for macro policies to guide the practice of tourism supply-side structural reform. The ARIMA models were established in this paper, and with the help of the data of tourism rate in 2014-2015, the predicable accuracy of these models was verified and passed. On this basis, the data of the urban residents’ travel rate in China from 2016 to 2020 was predicted. The empirical results show that the predicable precision of ARIMA model(2.1.2) is higher, which can be used as an effective basis for predicting the tendency of domestic urban residents’ future travel rate.

Keywords:

• ARIMA models
• Travel rate
• Static prediction
• Performance prediction