Simulation based study for estimation of COVID-19 spread in India using SEIR model

Abstract

COVID -19 (Corona Virus Disease of 2019) what is known to be first incidence from Wuhan, China has now discovered its spread & threat to every other country. Protective measurements and better addressing policies seem to be the only way of fighting against COVID-19 progression till the vaccination to be invented. Study aims at finding the estimated progression of COVID -19 spread in India at different rates of transmission (R₀) by using Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered (SEIR) model using online data COVID -19 registered cases in India collected from 30th January 2020 to 28th April 2020 for earlier phase of the research & then till June 30th 2020 for later part of the study. Also the data of around 206 countries for BCG vaccine coverage & 155 countries for temperature effect were assessed for finding correlation with COVID-19 morbidity. Reproduction number for COVID -19 for India was found at R₀ =2.51 with transmission rate (β) = 0.24560 per day, latent period α = 0.19231 & recovery rate γ = 0.09785 for earlier date 28 th April 2020, then found to be decreased at R₀ = 2.03 & β = 0.19865 per day later for June 30 th 2020 while recovery and latency time assumed to be constant. Weak negative correlation found for BCG & temperature rise with COVID -19 morbidity.

Subject Classification: (2010):

• 34-XX
• 65U20
• 81T80

Keywords:

• COVID -19
• Basic reproduction number (R₀)
• Transmission rate (β)
• Latency period (α)
• Recovery rate (γ)
• SEIR model