Modeling and forecasting of COVID-19 infection cases in Iraq

Abstract

Nowadays, COVID-19 pandemic has a big effect on the different factors of the life for all the world. The problem of this study is the behavior, and the expected number of infections are not clear and did not studied in Iraq. Consequently, modeling and forecasting of the infection cases have an importance into various sectors of life. Several models have been proposed in last few months for enhancing the precision and efficiency of pandemic modeling and forecasting. The goal of this paper is to find the appropriate model specifying the behavior of the virus and to forecast the expected number of infections in the few period later. Forecasting of COVID-19 infection cases is important to provide an indicator will be used by the public health authorities in Iraq for different purposes. Several models and an original time series of COVID-19 infection cases in Iraq was analyzed to select the appropriate model and use it to forecast the future number of infections and death. The results of analyze this data show that the appropriate model is nonparametric polynomial model, and the forecasted numbers are near the actual numbers.

Subject Classification:

• 62M10

Keywords:

• Covid-19
• Forecasting
• Modeling
• Nonparametric polynomial model
• Time series