The optimal dynamic hedging strategy for Nikkei 225 index and futures

Abstract

In this study we investigate the hedging effectiveness on the Nikkei 225 index within Osaka and Singapore Nikkei 225 Futures. The results show that the bivariate GARCH-CI model generates better hedging performances than the other models do, no matter what futures we use. Under these four models (bivariate GARCH-CI, ECM, VAR, and Kalman filter), a longer holding period generates a better hedging effectiveness. Moreover, the Osaka Nikkei 225 Futures provide better hedging performance than Singapore Nikkei 225 Futures do. We therefore conclude that investors employing Osaka Nikkei 225 Futures with a longer holding period to hedge spot risks can achieve the best hedging performance under the bivariate GARCH-CI model. These results are very helpful to investors who invest in Japan’s stock markets.

Keywords:

• Nikkei 225 index
• Nikkei 225 index futures
• GARCH
• Kalman filter
• Hedging effectiveness