Analyzing the intensity of COVID-19 outbreak across Indian landscape through recovery deceased ratio and positive test ratio based ARIMA model

Abstract

Entire nations are fighting against the novel corona virus through economic stimulus and existential medical infrastructure, however continuous increase in positive COVID-19 cases, highlights an alarming trend. Therefore, it becomes utter necessary to forecast the number cases accurately so that we can be prepared for the worst outcome. In this paper, Auto regression integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is implemented to predict and analyze the trend of this pandemic. Further, two indices are formulated as recovery deceased ratio (RDR) and positive test ratio (PTR) in conjugation with trend in other countries and predicting peak for Indian scenario and peak in highly affected states. The proposed methodology based on ARIMA in combination with PTR and RDR is compared with classical ARIMA model. Through this study, upcoming cases for five states and one union territory (highly affected) are forecasted and later expanded the scope toward Indian landscape to further analyze the peak and recovery thereafter.

Subject Classification:

• 62P10

Keywords:

• ARIMA
• Corona virus
• Recovery deceased ratio (RDR)
• Positive test ratio (PTR)