Modified SEIR model for prediction of COVID-19 outbreak trend in India with effectiveness of preventive care

Abstract

The outbreak of COVID 19 among community is a threat to society. The world is still looking for its vaccine in the market due to rapid growth in positive cases. The shutdown of essential service in global market due to COVID-19 has produced a threat to economic security and society growth. In present study, SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Recovered) model using ode45 solver has been developed for prediction of number of COVID-19 cases that could possibly be there in India in next 227 days. The impact of COVID-19 cases with and without and preventive care has been predicted with proposed model. The effect of reproductive number (R) in respect to preventive care has also been analysed.

Subject Classification:

• 00A05

Keywords:

• COVID-19
• Epidemic
• Prediction
• SEIR
• Model
• Ode45 solver