Transmission and influence of International oil price on China’s macroeconomic –based SVAR model

Abstract

Using a structured vector auto regression (SVAR) model, the paper contrast analysis the impact of international oil price fluctuation on China’s macroeconomic before and after the crude oil wholesale and retail markets open. The results showed that the crude oil whole-sale and retail markets opening accelerate the transmission of international oil price fluctuations on the China’s economy. At the same time, oil price fluctuations aggravate China’s domestic inflation. The implementation of tight monetary policy eases the inflation pressure to a certain extent, but there are still exert excessive risks. With the increase of crude oil external dependency, the China’s government must take actively measures to cope with the international crude oil prices impacting on our country’s economy.

Keywords:

• International oil price
• A structured vector auto regression model
• Transmission Mechanism