Forecasting method for import and export trade on the basis of GMDH network model

Abstract

The PSO – based GMDH network model forecasting method is composed. On the basis of the introduction for two methods, PSO and GMDH, the optimized model, method and operation flow of the PSO – based GMDH network are basically introduced. Accordingly on this basis, preciseness of GMDH network forecasting and PSO – based GMDH network forecasting is verified by adapting forecasting volume of Shenzhen import and export trade; the Shenzhen import and export trade is fitting forecasted by single GMDH network and PSO – based GMDH network respectively. The simulation experiment reaches a conclusion that the PSO – based GMDH network is able to acquire better forecasting result compared with single GMDH network.

Keywords:

• Import and export trade
• GMDH network model
• Forecasting method
• PSO