GM (1,1) model predicting elevator spare parts based on trigonometric function of variable coefficient

Abstract

In order to ensure the rationality of elevator spare parts storage and improve the supply efficiency of spare parts, the GM (1, 1) grey prediction model of variable-coefficient trigonometric function of elevator spare parts was established. We utilized the residuals between the original data and the predicted data by GM (1, 1) model to establish the residual error model of variable-coefficient trigonometric function. The least square model was utilized to obtain the coefficients of variable-coefficient trigonometric function model. The results showed that GM (1, 1) grey prediction model was in good agreement with the actual situation. Compared with GM (1, 1) trigonometric function, the predicted relative error reduced from 6.34% to 1.77%.

Keywords:

• GM (1, 1) model
• Variable-coefficient trigonometric function
• Residual sequence
• Spare parts prediction