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Abstract
Sprinkler irrigation, an agricultural production system that is causing increasing conflict among water resource users, is expanding quickly in the Central Western Cerrado regions of Brazil. To subsidize watershed management and concession of water rights, GIS-based spatial modelling was applied to spatially predict relative likelihood of the installation of centre sprinkler irrigation systems. Interpretation of multitemporal Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper imagery was conducted to map spatial distribution of centre-pivot sprinkler systems. Multi-source data layers on environmental conditions and infrastructure were elaborated to test their predictive power in an Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, a spatial modelling technique for presence-only data. Underpinned by an exploratory analysis of spatial autocorrelation of irrigation systems, suitability predictions were found to be accurate on landscape scale and improved when the model includes underlying ecogeographical factors (EGV) such as farming suitability, soil groupings and distance to the hydrographic network and a density layer of existing irrigations.