A hybrid GIS-assisted framework to integrate Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence and fuzzy sets in risk analysis: an application in hydrocarbon exploration

Abstract

One of the most important reasons for the existence of geologic risk during the hydrocarbon exploration process is related to uncertainties in geospatial data and models employed for data fusion. This study proposes a geospatial information system-assisted approach integrated with soft computing methods to manage spatial uncertainties during the hydrocarbon exploration process. A framework was designed to illustrate the process of calculating the geologic risk interval of each hydrocarbon structure and its estimation of uncertainties. The model enhances the geologic risk analysis of a Dempster–Shafer data-driven method by a fuzzy logic approach. The resultant hybrid method showed high predictive power with the area under the success and predictive curves being 82.2 and 75.9%, respectively. According to the results, the proposed hybrid method has improved the quality of risk analysis.

Keywords:

• Geospatial information system
• uncertainty
• hydrocarbon exploration
• Dempster–Shafer theory
• fuzzy set

Acknowledgments

All the respectable reviewers are acknowledged for their fruitful comments and suggestions about the paper.

Disclosure Statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Funding

The authors would like to thank the University of Tehran Vice President for Research to fund the research with the Grant N. 8103002/6/46 awarded to the second author.

Mahmoud Reza Delavar designed the initial idea of the research and helped Sahand Seraj in the methodology development. Sahand Seraj gathered the data. Both Sahand Seraj and Mahmoud Reza Delavar analyzed the data; Sahand Seraj undertook the computational parts and the experiments. Sahand Seraj wrote the draft paper. Mahmoud Reza Delavar and Reza Rezaee critically reviewed and extended all the sections of paper. Sahand Seraj finalized the paper.