Simulation of future forest and land use/cover changes (2019–2039) using the cellular automata-Markov model

Abstract

This study aimed to simulate and assess forest cover and land use/land cover (LULC) changes between 2019 and 2039 using the cellular automata-Markov model. The performance of the model was evaluated by comparing the 2019 simulation map with the 2019 supervised classified map, and it was found to be reliable, with a similarity rate of 85.43%. The LULC analysis and estimates were carried out for a total of six classes: coniferous, broad-leaf, mixed forest, settlement, water and agriculture. Between 1999 and 2019, the areas of total forest increased by 17.4%, settlement by 84.6% and water by 20.1%, whereas the agriculture area decreased by 33.2%. According to 2019‒2039 land use/cover simulation results, there were decreases of 2.4% in total forest area and 3.7% in residential and water surface areas, but a 6.9% decrease in the agriculture class. Tracking these changes will contribute to decision making and strategy development efforts of forest planners and managers.

Keywords:

• Forest structure
• LULC
• CA-Markov
• remote sensing
• GIS

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Zonguldak Regional Directorate of Forestry and Bartın Forest Operation Directorate and their staff for supplying and delivering forest-cover type maps and forest management plans.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.